Game Analysis

TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Carolina

· Tennessee’s defense can surrender explosive passes after trading starting safety Kevin Byard but the Panthers have a league-low 39 plays of at least 15 yards on offense this season. Bryce Young just hasn’t been able to get anything downfield and he will not have time to look downfield in this game.

· Titans’ interior defender Jeffery Simmons ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency and a league-high 64.7% of Carolina’s pressures have been charged to the interior offensive line.

· It doesn’t stop there though as the interior line is likely even worse than they’ve shown already. The Panthers released guard Calvin Throckmorton and guard Austin Corbett went down with a left knee injury in the loss to the Cowboys. Panthers rookie guard Chandler Zavala surrendered 3 sacks last week and is surrendering a 14.0% pressure rate.

· The Titans should be able to win this game by pounding the rock and limiting the impact from their own rookie quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee’s offense ranks 6th in run play rate above expectation and Carolina’s defense is allowing a league-high 0.07 EPA/rush.

· DeAndre Hopkins is gaining 2.29 yards per route run (12th) and would have a favorable matchup across from backup cornerback CJ Henderson, who is surrendering 1.90 yards per cover snap (3rd-worst). However, the Panthers might get starting CB Jaycee Horn back on the field for his first game since week 1.

· Our model favors the Titans by 7.2 points, with a predicted total of 34.6 points, but the situation strongly favors Carolina, wo apply to a 131-50-6 ATS contrary angle that plays on bad teams on a losing streak that are coming off a loss of 17 points or more.