Game Analysis
Lean – Under (54) – Carolina (-3.5/-3) vs TAMPA BAY
The Panthers lost to the Lions two weeks ago despite outgaining them by 2 yards per play and followed it up last week by outgaining the Seahawks by 1.9 yards per play and finding a way to lose again. Now Carolina is likely to miss the playoffs in a crowded NFC wild-card race and their only saving grace may be New Orleans potentially resting their starters in week 17.
Christian McCaffrey became just the 15th player to ever record 100 yards rushing and receiving and a touchdown rushing and receiving in a game and he should be in line for another outstanding afternoon if the Buccaneers are again without starting linebackers and defensive captains, Lavonte David (questionable) and Kwon Alexander (out). Tampa Bay’s rush defense ranks 30th and there should be plenty of running room for Carolina’s 3rd-rated ground game. However, the more running the more time ticks off the clock and the more likely the game will go under the total, even with expected success from the ground game.
Jameis Winston is averaging 10.9 air yards per throw, the highest in the league, and his wide receivers should feast on the outside if Donte Jackson is unable to go for the Panthers after suffering a quad injury on the first play last Sunday. Jackson’s backup Corn Elder is surrendering 1.80 yards per cover snap in limited work this season, including the game-winning touchdown last week, and James Bradberry is allowing 1.57 yards per cover snap, which ranks 10th-worst among qualifying cornerbacks. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson are each gaining 2.25 yards per route run (t-11th) and Winston will likely have success finding them downfield all afternoon.
Our model favors the Panthers by 3.3 points with a total of 52.3 points, so the model leans under, and this game applies to a very good 704-507-16 Under situation that is 183-104-2 in recent years and is particularly good on games with high totals (23-3 Under when the Over/Under line is higher than 51 points).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.8%
51.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
20.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
41.7%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
24.2
-
RB YPR
5.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.1%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.7%
60.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.3
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
59.6
-
Early Down Succ
55.1%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
51.5%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
46.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
30.0
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
26.7
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.5
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.3%
52.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.1%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.1%
42.0%
-
NYPP
8.1
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
25.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.8%
59.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
68.0
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
55.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
42.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
28.1
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% /
37.1% |
10.7% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
44.7% /
26.1% |
21.1% /
17.4% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
66 /
58 |
58.7% /
38.6% |
47.0% /
32.8% |
28.7% /
22.7% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
57.6% /
39.7% |
38.1 /
21.4 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% /
67.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
3.6% |
6.8 /
9.7 |
66.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
31.3% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
65 /
60 |
58.5% /
59.2% |
56.9% /
58.3% |
44.4% /
55.9% |
6.8 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.7% /
53.3% |
19.5 /
26.2 |
| 3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% /
53.2% |
4.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
5.5 /
5.1 |
67 /
60 |
46.2% /
56.0% |
44.8% /
53.3% |
54.8% /
58.1% |
5.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
62.7% /
21.7% |
30.5 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
NYG |
33 – 31 W |
5.4 |
76.2% /
75.0% |
4.8% /
4.2% |
10.0% /
8.7% |
11.0 /
15.9 |
40.6% /
25.0% |
28.1% /
43.8% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
53 /
40 |
47.1% /
46.7% |
54.7% /
55.0% |
52.7% /
59.3% |
6.6 /
10.8 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
60.4% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
30.5 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
17 – 23 L |
-9.4 |
53.7% /
35.9% |
2.4% /
7.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.0 |
47.4% /
51.7% |
26.3% /
10.3% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
60 /
68 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
51.7% /
42.6% |
25.9% /
36.3% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
42.6% |
20.3 /
33.7 |
| 7 |
@PHI |
21 – 17 W |
-6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
4.9% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.9 |
61.1% /
54.2% |
16.7% /
25.0% |
6.8 /
2.4 |
59 /
65 |
57.8% /
57.1% |
54.2% /
52.3% |
50.0% /
37.7% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
36.9% |
26.3 /
19.8 |
| 8 |
BAL |
36 – 21 W |
10.2 |
60.0% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
31.4% /
77.8% |
20.0% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
65 /
64 |
47.9% /
56.0% |
44.6% /
54.7% |
26.3% /
26.2% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
53.8% /
28.1% |
37.5 /
23.0 |
| 9 |
TB |
42 – 28 W |
14.2 |
55.6% /
47.7% |
7.4% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.4 /
5.0 |
48.6% /
23.8% |
11.4% /
23.8% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
62 /
65 |
62.2% /
39.2% |
51.6% /
40.0% |
56.0% /
49.5% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.5% /
32.3% |
34.8 /
24.6 |
| 10 |
@PIT |
21 – 52 L |
-20.4 |
50.0% /
67.9% |
14.7% /
3.6% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
11.4 |
50.0% /
41.9% |
18.2% /
22.6% |
4.3 /
4.5 |
56 /
59 |
52.3% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
37.6% /
52.8% |
4.3 /
7.8 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
52.5% |
24.9 /
30.1 |
| 11 |
@DET |
19 – 20 L |
-1.3 |
53.7% /
39.5% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
56.3% /
34.5% |
18.8% /
31.0% |
3.5 /
3.3 |
57 /
67 |
56.5% /
42.0% |
54.4% /
37.3% |
51.4% /
37.9% |
6.8 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
43.3% |
16.4 /
31.9 |
| 12 |
SEA |
27 – 30 L |
1.6 |
66.7% /
59.4% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
10.1 |
59.3% /
25.8% |
25.9% /
25.8% |
8.1 /
2.5 |
57 /
63 |
68.1% /
44.2% |
63.2% /
42.9% |
57.6% /
60.2% |
8.4 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.4% /
49.2% |
29.3 /
22.4 |
| 13 |
@TB |
17 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
47.8% /
50.0% |
8.7% /
11.8% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
55.0% /
36.0% |
15.0% /
40.0% |
8.5 /
3.8 |
66 /
59 |
54.5% /
43.5% |
50.0% /
44.1% |
54.2% /
41.6% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
30.3% /
42.4% |
21.3 /
35.2 |
| 14 |
@CLE |
20 – 26 L |
0.4 |
40.9% /
37.5% |
2.3% /
4.2% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
9.7 |
56.0% /
34.8% |
24.0% /
30.4% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
69 /
47 |
48.1% /
38.2% |
46.4% /
36.2% |
45.3% /
68.0% |
5.7 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
36.2% /
48.9% |
37.3 /
25.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% /
73.9% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
14.9 /
9.4 |
43.2% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
23.1% |
3.1 /
3.3 |
65 /
59 |
56.5% /
77.6% |
52.3% /
72.9% |
62.7% /
36.4% |
8.2 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
56.9% /
22.0% |
26.4 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% /
42.0% |
5.7% /
6.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
11.2 /
6.4 |
25.0% /
54.2% |
41.7% /
20.8% |
1.8 /
3.8 |
59 /
74 |
48.9% /
48.1% |
45.8% /
45.9% |
45.3% /
36.2% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
2.7% |
40.7% /
32.4% |
27.2 /
25.5 |
| 3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-9.7 |
45.3% /
51.2% |
5.7% /
7.3% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
7.4 /
8.2 |
47.1% /
36.0% |
17.6% /
28.0% |
3.8 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
48.3% /
54.0% |
45.7% /
45.5% |
43.6% /
45.4% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
37.9% |
25.2 /
28.0 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% /
66.7% |
9.5% /
3.7% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
12.7 |
38.9% /
51.5% |
22.2% /
27.3% |
3.3 /
4.3 |
60 /
60 |
45.7% /
64.6% |
43.3% /
58.3% |
32.8% /
72.6% |
5.2 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.0% /
55.0% |
23.8 /
27.5 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.3 |
61.9% /
57.1% |
4.8% /
2.4% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
8.2 |
55.0% /
40.9% |
25.0% /
36.4% |
6.2 /
3.2 |
62 /
64 |
59.3% /
49.0% |
59.7% /
51.6% |
32.8% /
40.9% |
8.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
34.4% |
28.6 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
CLE |
26 – 23 W |
6.5 |
51.8% /
38.5% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.8 |
42.4% /
39.1% |
30.3% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
5.2 |
89 /
62 |
49.3% /
45.7% |
48.3% /
38.7% |
35.4% /
41.0% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
2.2% /
1.6% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
21.3 /
37.6 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
34 – 37 L |
-10.5 |
41.1% /
48.6% |
10.7% /
5.7% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
7.5 |
51.9% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
28.6% |
4.7 /
5.0 |
83 /
63 |
39.7% /
50.0% |
44.6% /
46.0% |
49.0% /
54.6% |
6.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.5% /
44.4% |
24.5 /
29.5 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
28 – 42 L |
-14.2 |
47.7% /
55.6% |
6.8% /
7.4% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.4 |
23.8% /
48.6% |
23.8% /
11.4% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
65 /
62 |
39.2% /
62.2% |
40.0% /
51.6% |
49.5% /
56.0% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
56.5% |
24.6 /
34.8 |
| 10 |
WAS |
3 – 16 L |
-4.7 |
62.8% /
40.0% |
4.7% /
10.0% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
5.7 |
45.8% /
56.0% |
25.0% /
32.0% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
67 /
55 |
56.1% /
50.0% |
56.7% /
47.3% |
36.5% /
39.9% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
35.8% /
45.5% |
19.0 /
29.7 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
35 – 38 L |
-10.5 |
55.3% /
54.5% |
2.6% /
18.2% |
10.8% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
8.9 |
56.7% /
59.4% |
20.0% /
9.4% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
68 /
54 |
54.4% /
62.8% |
55.9% /
57.4% |
55.5% /
59.4% |
7.5 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
59.3% |
24.6 /
28.5 |
| 12 |
SF |
27 – 9 W |
8.9 |
56.4% /
44.4% |
2.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.8 /
5.4 |
33.3% /
48.0% |
24.2% /
24.0% |
3.3 /
6.0 |
72 /
61 |
47.3% /
52.9% |
45.8% /
45.9% |
39.6% /
58.3% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
41.0% |
22.1 /
20.6 |
| 13 |
CAR |
24 – 17 W |
6.2 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
11.8% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
9.5% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
36.0% /
55.0% |
40.0% /
15.0% |
3.8 /
8.5 |
59 /
66 |
43.5% /
54.5% |
44.1% /
50.0% |
41.6% /
54.2% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
30.3% |
35.2 /
21.3 |
| 14 |
NO |
14 – 28 L |
3.3 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
9.5% /
3.1% |
2.6% /
3.2% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
43.5% /
40.6% |
26.1% /
28.1% |
4.6 /
3.2 |
65 /
64 |
39.2% /
53.2% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
36.2% /
30.7% |
4.3 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
35.4% /
50.0% |
29.5 /
34.8 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers