Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Carolina (+2) over TAMPA BAY

The Buccaneers have been very good offensively so far this season, ranking 2^nd in compensated yards per play with quarterback Jameis Winston triggering an aerial attack that ranks 2^nd in my metrics. Tampa Bay’s ground game is below average and the mid-season addition of Doug Martin has not made much of a difference thus far so I don’t expect the Buccaneers’ to have success on the ground versus a Panthers defense surrendering just 3.7 yards per rush. Tampa Bay will need to rely on the arm of Winston but he’s facing a tough matchup against a Carolina secondary ranked 9th in my metrics.

The Panthers offense has been up and down this season but that unit should have success in this game. Tampa Bay has been decent holding opponents to 4.0 yards per rush this season (16th) but overall the Bucs rank 30^th in the league in yards per play allowed (6.1 yppl) because their pass defense is horrendous. I don’t expect Carolina’s 29th-ranked rush offense to be featured in this game, as the Panthers are likely to rely on their air attack. Cam Newton will need to exploit Tampa Bay’s 30th-ranked pass defense and he proved worthy in his only other game this season against a bottom-10 pass defense – throwing for 9.8 yards per pass play against the Patriots. I expect Newton to have another good game on Sunday.

It is uncertain whether three key Panthers will play, as Luke Kuechly (questionable), Ryan Kalil (questionable), and Trai Turner (doubtful) are all possibly out, but I will lean with Carolina plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Buccaneers

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 32.9
Succ Pass Plays 46.9% 42.5%
Sack Rate 8.3% 12.9%
Int Rate 4.1% 0.4%
Deep Pass Rate 19.2% 21.1%
Big Pass Yards 40.6% 44.1%
NYPP 6.3 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 22.7
RB YPR 2.8 3.3
Stuff Rate 26.2% 28.1%
Succ Rush Plays 43.1% 41.1%
Big Rush Yards 34.9% 49.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 3.6

Game

All Snaps 67.0 55.6
Early Down Succ 45.7% 47.6%
Succ Rate 44.3% 43.0%
Big Yards Rate 40.2% 43.8%
Yards Per Play 4.8 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.4 28.3
Run Ratio 45.1% 42.3%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 29.5
Game Control 0.2 -0.2

Points 18.7 19.9

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	23 – 3 W	12.4	45.8% / 46.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.2% / 2.9%	7.1 / 4.3	39.0% / 26.7%	14.6% / 26.7%	2.9 / 3.4	65 / 54	42.6% / 48.7%	41.5% / 40.7%	29.7% / 33.6%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.9%	63.1% / 27.8%	33.7 / 30.1
2	BUF	9 – 3 W	4.0	50.0% / 35.7%	15.8% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 3.8	34.5% / 21.7%	37.9% / 39.1%	2.7 / 3.0	67 / 51	44.9% / 30.6%	43.3% / 29.4%	39.1% / 20.5%	3.8 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 45.1%	31.3 / 21.1
3	NO	13 – 34 L	-8.6	43.2% / 46.7%	10.8% / 3.3%	9.1% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.1	77.3% / 55.6%	4.5% / 25.9%	6.0 / 5.5	59 / 57	57.8% / 51.1%	55.9% / 50.9%	40.3% / 55.5%	4.9 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 47.4%	25.2 / 37.8
4	@NE	33 – 30 W	1.9	61.3% / 60.4%	6.5% / 6.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	51.7% / 73.7%	20.7% / 21.1%	4.8 / 4.2	60 / 67	54.9% / 66.7%	56.7% / 64.2%	48.0% / 22.0%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 0.0%	48.3% / 28.4%	26.7 / 26.1
5	@DET	27 – 24 W	6.3	50.0% / 51.2%	8.3% / 14.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 4.7	17.6% / 40.0%	32.4% / 40.0%	0.9 / 3.3	70 / 56	37.0% / 52.4%	34.3% / 48.2%	53.7% / 53.7%	5.2 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.8%	48.6% / 26.8%	31.7 / 29.8
6	PHI	23 – 28 L	-3.0	37.0% / 39.4%	3.7% / 9.1%	5.8% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.3	48.0% / 37.9%	40.0% / 27.6%	3.2 / 3.6	79 / 62	45.0% / 41.9%	40.5% / 38.7%	20.7% / 54.2%	3.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	31.6% / 46.8%	30.0 / 32.9
7	@CHI	3 – 17 L	-11.4	41.0% / 18.2%	12.8% / 36.4%	5.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.7	33.3% / 32.3%	33.3% / 16.1%	3.6 / 2.3	69 / 42	37.7% / 41.7%	37.7% / 28.6%	49.8% / 67.3%	4.2 / 3.7	1.4% / 0.0%	43.5% / 73.8%	24.6 / 28.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	CHI	29 – 7 W	18.1	48.5% / 56.5%	6.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	5.9 / 6.3	36.1% / 25.0%	11.1% / 43.8%	3.3 / 1.3	69 / 62	41.2% / 50.0%	42.0% / 48.4%	14.4% / 6.5%	4.5 / 5.0	1.4% / 3.2%	52.2% / 25.8%	31.1 / 27.0
3	@MIN	17 – 34 L	-13.1	57.1% / 63.6%	4.8% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.5 / 11.2	44.4% / 37.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	2.9 / 3.2	51 / 73	60.0% / 52.7%	54.9% / 49.3%	16.7% / 45.3%	6.7 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 54.8%	24.8 / 27.3
4	NYG	25 – 23 W	5.2	48.7% / 49.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.9	42.3% / 35.7%	19.2% / 28.6%	4.3 / 3.3	65 / 77	56.3% / 44.1%	46.2% / 44.2%	57.3% / 27.4%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 36.4%	29.9 / 27.7
5	NE	14 – 19 L	-4.4	48.9% / 51.2%	4.3% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.8 / 6.7	55.0% / 47.8%	20.0% / 17.4%	4.5 / 4.9	67 / 66	55.6% / 53.7%	50.7% / 50.0%	37.2% / 24.6%	6.1 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	29.9% / 34.8%	27.4 / 27.7
6	@ARI	33 – 38 L	-18.1	53.5% / 62.5%	2.3% / 8.3%	4.8% / 4.5%	8.0 / 11.3	23.8% / 38.5%	38.1% / 20.5%	3.2 / 4.2	64 / 63	40.4% / 56.5%	43.8% / 47.6%	51.9% / 53.0%	6.5 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.6%	32.8% / 61.9%	28.3 / 33.4
7	@BUF	27 – 30 L	-2.0	64.4% / 44.1%	2.2% / 2.9%	2.3% / 0.0%	8.4 / 7.7	32.0% / 42.4%	20.0% / 27.3%	2.8 / 5.2	70 / 67	52.5% / 37.3%	52.9% / 43.3%	26.4% / 65.0%	6.4 / 6.5	2.9% / 1.5%	35.7% / 49.3%	27.0 / 33.7

Carolina Panthers @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis