Game Analysis

3-Star Best Bet Teaser – Washington +8.5 with Carolina +8.5

Carolina (+2.5) over NY GIANTS

· The Panthers are a healthier and better team than the Giants. Homefield advantage is less than 2 points currently in the NFL and New York should not be favored in this game. 

· The Giants had a league-high 73% run rate on first down which indicates to me that new head coach Brian Daboll does not trust Daniel Jones given he was consistently near the top of the league in first down passing as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator.

· Saquon Barkley finished with 194 yards from scrimmage against the Titans, but the running back will not be able to carry New York’s offense on his back again this week.

· The Panthers allowed 4.1 yards per rush last season (8th) while Carolina linebacker Shaq Thompson conceded just 5.1 yards per target in 2021 and will limit Barkley in the receiving game.

· Baker Mayfield threw a screen on a league-high 21.2% of his dropbacks last week. Christian McCaffrey will be a threat in the receiving game against Don Martindale’s defense. The Ravens allowed more yards per target to opposing RBs than any team in the NFL last season (7.7) with Martindale as defensive coordinator before he moved to New York during the offseason.

· Carolina’s rookie LT Ikem Ekwonu struggled in his debut across from All-Pro DE Myles Garrett but the Giants starting edge rushers are both banged-up. Kayvon Thibodeaux was inactive last Sunday due to a sprained MCL and Azeez Ojulari (calf) was also sidelined. Mayfield should have more time in the pocket to attack one of the league’s worst secondaries.

· Our model has the Panthers by 2.7 points with a predicted total of 44.3.

Carolina is part of a 3-Star Best Bet 6-point teaser with Washington (both at +7.5 or more).