Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+5.5) over NEW ORLEANS

· Derek Carr suffered a concussion last week but he will suit up on Sunday and I expect plenty of screens from the New Orleans offense as they’ll have to replace Taysom Hill in the short yardage game. Hill is out dealing with injuries to his foot and hand and he is worth a half point by our numbers.

· Saints RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 1.97 yards per route run (2nd) but will be shut down as Carolina’s defense allows just a 31% pass success rate to running backs (2nd).

· Panthers’ top cornerback Jaycee Horn earned 32 snaps last week in his first game back since week 1 and his workload should increase on Sunday to limit WR Chris Olave while New Orleans other starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are out again.

· Bryce Young’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is a league-low 82% compared to his yards per attempt versus the blitz and the rookie could struggle as the Saints have a 76.8% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).

· However, Carolina WR Adam Thielen has a favorable matchup on the inside against a defense that struggles to stop slot receivers. New Orleans nickelback Alontae Taylor is allowing 1.27 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst) and Thielen is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (10th).

· Our model favors the Saints by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of 40.6 points, and the Panthers apply to a 194-86-6 ATS situation.