Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-3) vs Carolina

Kirk Cousins had one of his best games of the season in last week’s loss to the Cowboys, averaging 9.5 yards per pass play with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, the Vikings run the ball on more than half of their plays despite having two of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Cousins is the only player in the league averaging more than 8 yards per pass play but Minnesota ranks just 13th in scoring. Adam Thielen is averaging 2.23 yards per route run (9th) but he will miss this game due to a positive covid test – although he did test negative on a different test so his status is up in the air. CB Rasul Douglas has been solid this season but Carolina’s defense will likely be without their other starting CB Donte Jackson (turf toe) so Thielen could have the chance to line up across from backup CB Troy Pride, who ranks 66th out of 81 qualifying cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap.

Teddy Bridgewater should be back under center on Sunday after sitting out last game due to an MCL sprain in his right knee. Robby Anderson and DJ Moore are both averaging 2.22 yards per route run and they should dominate Minnesota’s cornerbacks. It looks like Christian McCaffrey will be out again (shoulder injury) and the Vikings have the top rush defense by our numbers so the Panthers will need their passing attack to move the ball.

Our model makes Minnesota a 1.9-points favorite with a predicted total of 51.0 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Vikings

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.1 38.2
Succ Pass Plays 47.9% 50.0%
Sack Rate 5.6% 3.5%
Int Rate 2.5% 1.2%
Deep Pass Rate 18.7% 16.8%
Big Pass Yards 43.8% 35.9%
NYPP 6.8 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.1 25.5
RB YPR 4.0 4.3
Stuff Rate 17.8% 21.0%
Succ Rush Plays 50.0% 53.0%
Big Rush Yards 34.3% 38.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.4

Game

All Snaps 61.2 63.6
Early Down Succ 51.5% 51.8%
Succ Rate 48.7% 51.0%
Big Yards Rate 41.5% 38.8%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.6 27.2
Run Ratio 40.7% 39.7%
Starting Field Pos 27.8 30.7
Game Control 0.4 -0.4

Points 23.0 24.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LV	30 – 34 L	-2.6	45.7% / 56.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 8.0	56.7% / 64.5%	16.7% / 16.1%	4.3 / 4.3	65 / 61	50.0% / 62.0%	50.8% / 60.7%	29.9% / 37.1%	6.0 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 50.8%	26.4 / 32.9
2	@TB	17 – 31 L	-12.1	53.2% / 40.0%	10.6% / 0.0%	4.8% / 2.9%	7.2 / 6.2	58.3% / 59.1%	12.5% / 27.3%	3.6 / 5.5	71 / 57	55.2% / 47.8%	54.9% / 47.4%	24.6% / 53.1%	6.0 / 5.9	2.8% / 1.8%	33.8% / 38.6%	26.3 / 37.4
3	@LAC	21 – 16 W	6.1	53.3% / 52.9%	6.7% / 3.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.4 / 6.3	33.3% / 60.9%	38.1% / 17.4%	3.9 / 5.1	51 / 74	51.3% / 53.4%	45.1% / 55.4%	42.1% / 27.5%	5.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 4.1%	41.2% / 31.1%	37.8 / 24.6
4	ARI	31 – 21 W	12.2	51.4% / 46.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	2.7% / 0.0%	7.5 / 4.2	37.1% / 56.5%	17.1% / 21.7%	4.8 / 5.6	72 / 55	42.1% / 54.3%	44.4% / 50.9%	48.4% / 27.9%	6.2 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.8%	48.6% / 41.8%	26.8 / 28.7
5	@ATL	23 – 16 W	3.4	59.5% / 46.2%	0.0% / 5.1%	0.0% / 2.7%	8.5 / 5.2	63.0% / 68.0%	14.8% / 12.0%	4.6 / 6.6	64 / 64	64.7% / 58.3%	60.9% / 54.7%	40.3% / 51.2%	6.8 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.2% / 39.1%	23.0 / 21.8
6	CHI	16 – 23 L	-6.6	27.3% / 46.2%	12.1% / 0.0%	6.9% / 2.6%	5.8 / 5.1	41.4% / 36.0%	20.7% / 24.0%	3.9 / 2.5	62 / 64	36.2% / 42.6%	33.9% / 42.2%	60.4% / 17.6%	4.9 / 4.1	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 39.1%	18.0 / 43.8
7	@NO	24 – 27 L	-3.3	69.0% / 60.5%	3.4% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 7.3	42.9% / 62.1%	21.4% / 17.2%	2.6 / 4.8	43 / 67	58.8% / 56.9%	60.5% / 61.2%	43.1% / 33.7%	6.6 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.5%	32.6% / 43.3%	25.7 / 26.7
8	ATL	17 – 25 L	-1.1	36.7% / 59.4%	10.0% / 6.3%	3.7% / 3.3%	5.2 / 8.4	59.1% / 41.7%	13.6% / 13.9%	6.7 / 3.6	52 / 68	53.8% / 54.4%	46.2% / 50.0%	66.4% / 43.6%	5.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	42.3% / 52.9%	28.8 / 23.6
9	@KC	31 – 33 L	1.0	48.1% / 54.3%	3.8% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 8.0	54.2% / 50.0%	16.7% / 33.3%	4.3 / 2.5	76 / 58	50.0% / 52.2%	50.0% / 53.4%	37.5% / 52.9%	5.7 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	31.6% / 20.7%	24.9 / 36.2
10	TB	23 – 46 L	-3.1	35.5% / 55.0%	9.7% / 2.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.9 / 8.4	62.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 18.9%	4.1 / 5.7	47 / 77	54.3% / 50.0%	44.7% / 51.9%	38.5% / 51.5%	4.0 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.3%	34.0% / 48.1%	34.6 / 36.0
11	DET	20 – 0 W	10.1	47.2% / 31.6%	2.8% / 13.2%	5.7% / 0.0%	7.2 / 3.8	41.2% / 35.3%	11.8% / 29.4%	3.4 / 2.4	70 / 55	50.0% / 37.8%	44.3% / 32.7%	24.9% / 30.3%	5.3 / 3.4	0.0% / 1.8%	48.6% / 30.9%	33.1 / 25.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	34 – 43 L	-6.6	59.3% / 56.8%	7.4% / 0.0%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 8.3	72.7% / 65.6%	9.1% / 6.3%	6.1 / 4.9	49 / 76	69.0% / 63.9%	65.3% / 60.5%	51.8% / 48.5%	7.8 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.9% / 42.1%	22.8 / 33.6
2	@IND	11 – 28 L	-9.3	24.1% / 51.9%	10.3% / 7.4%	11.5% / 4.0%	3.3 / 7.5	38.9% / 50.0%	11.1% / 17.5%	4.4 / 3.8	47 / 67	32.4% / 56.6%	29.8% / 50.7%	41.7% / 34.5%	3.7 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 59.7%	20.5 / 44.6
3	TEN	30 – 31 L	3.2	44.8% / 44.7%	6.9% / 2.6%	7.4% / 2.7%	8.2 / 8.2	48.5% / 65.7%	12.1% / 17.1%	6.8 / 3.8	62 / 73	49.0% / 63.2%	46.8% / 54.8%	64.7% / 53.4%	7.5 / 6.1	1.6% / 0.0%	53.2% / 47.9%	23.3 / 34.4
4	@HOU	31 – 23 W	6.9	52.0% / 47.2%	12.0% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.9 / 8.1	57.5% / 50.0%	10.0% / 19.2%	4.1 / 3.7	65 / 62	60.0% / 54.2%	55.4% / 48.4%	50.2% / 40.2%	6.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	61.5% / 41.9%	27.3 / 26.6
5	@SEA	26 – 27 L	4.3	52.4% / 38.9%	7.1% / 11.1%	2.6% / 3.1%	5.9 / 5.3	48.8% / 62.5%	19.5% / 12.5%	4.9 / 7.8	83 / 52	51.5% / 51.2%	50.6% / 46.2%	32.7% / 43.3%	5.4 / 6.0	1.2% / 0.0%	49.4% / 30.8%	19.8 / 35.8
6	ATL	23 – 40 L	-15.7	48.6% / 57.1%	2.7% / 4.8%	8.3% / 0.0%	9.0 / 8.6	30.8% / 51.4%	38.5% / 32.4%	2.5 / 2.7	50 / 79	47.4% / 53.4%	44.0% / 54.4%	46.8% / 38.1%	7.3 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.3%	26.0% / 46.8%	23.9 / 38.3
8	@GB	28 – 22 W	3.6	60.0% / 52.4%	6.7% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.1 / 6.9	55.9% / 58.3%	20.6% / 8.3%	5.1 / 4.5	49 / 66	57.5% / 57.1%	57.1% / 54.5%	42.3% / 27.0%	6.6 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	69.4% / 36.4%	24.6 / 27.8
9	DET	34 – 20 W	12.3	52.4% / 59.6%	4.8% / 4.3%	0.0% / 6.7%	10.1 / 6.2	64.7% / 59.3%	8.8% / 7.4%	8.1 / 4.8	55 / 74	65.9% / 62.3%	60.0% / 59.5%	69.4% / 22.6%	8.9 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	61.8% / 36.5%	27.3 / 33.3
10	@CHI	19 – 13 W	1.9	51.4% / 36.4%	2.7% / 6.1%	2.8% / 3.2%	7.7 / 3.3	30.3% / 41.2%	33.3% / 35.3%	3.0 / 2.4	70 / 50	38.9% / 47.2%	41.4% / 38.0%	38.2% / 30.2%	5.5 / 3.0	1.4% / 2.0%	47.1% / 34.0%	33.9 / 34.6
11	DAL	28 – 31 L	-1.6	56.3% / 54.5%	6.3% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	9.5 / 5.9	65.5% / 61.3%	13.8% / 3.2%	4.3 / 5.8	61 / 64	62.0% / 62.5%	60.7% / 57.8%	53.7% / 34.0%	7.0 / 5.9	3.3% / 0.0%	47.5% / 48.4%	23.5 / 37.9

Carolina Panthers @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Nov 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis