Game Analysis

Lean – JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Carolina

· Jacksonville was 8-3 heading into December, but they lost four straight games and their playoff chances would fall to about 40% if they lose on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence must really be hurt to not play given those circumstances.

· The Jaguars offensive line ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency the first 12 weeks but they have surrendered a league-high 70 pressures across the past four weeks without starting LT Cam Robinson.

· Passes to running backs are a way for Jaguars’ backup QB CJ Beathard to alleviate opposing pass rushes. Jacksonville RB Travis Etienne is averaging 0.15 EPA/target (2nd) but he will be limited by a Panthers’ defense that is allowing just a 30% pass success rate to running backs (2nd).

· Jaguars TE Evan Engram had 15 targets last game without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones on the field and I expect him to be prominent again despite Jones possibly suiting up this Sunday. The Panthers are surrendering a 62% success rate to tight ends (30th).

· Bryce Young had a career-high +12.2 passing EPA last week and he has another favorable matchup to build on his game versus the Packers.

· Jacksonville nickelback Tre Herndon is allowing 1.32 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th-worst) and he will struggle on the inside across from WR Adam Thielen, who has a 59% success rate (9th).

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 6.8 points, with a predicted total of 35.5 points.