Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Carolina (+2 ½) over DETROIT

Detroit exceeded their expected point differential for the 4th straight week on Sunday, as they continue to be the NFL’s luckiest team. The Lions were outplayed by the Vikings, as they were outgained 3.7 yppl to 5.3 yppl, but managed to win that game 14-7 due to some good fortune. Detroit scored 11 of their 14 points with short fields resulting from two Vikings’ fumbles and the Vikings lost another fumble on their final drive sealing the game for the Lions. Short fields aren’t new to Detroit’s offense as their defense leads the league in takeaways. Despite being top 10 in scoring, the Lions offense ranks last in drives of more than 50 yards – my numbers have Detroit’s offense ranked 28th overall and it won’t be easy this week against a top-5 Carolina defense.

Cam Newton came alive last week with 9.8 yppp, albeit against what has been a miserable Patriots defense, logging the second best offensive performance of the week according to my metrics. With hardly any offseason changes the Lions pass defense has gone from 29th in 2016 to 11th this season – I don’t expect the Lions secondary to continue playing at this level as the season progresses and Newton should have another good outing.

The Panthers offense played better in week 4, but, as I mentioned earlier, Carolina has been getting it done with defense this season. The Panthers have only surrendered 17.5 points per game and have actually been unfortunate to allow opponent touchdowns on 5 of 8 Redzone opportunities, including 3 of 4 by the Patriots last week – I don’t expect a defense of Carolina’s quality to allow touchdowns on 63% of opponent Redzone trips as the season progresses.

The summer line for this game was DET -2 and since then both teams have started 3-1, but the Lions have been the luckiest team in the league. This season, Detroit ranks worse than Carolina in both offensive yppl (4.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl) and defensive yppl (5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl), yet the current line is a bit higher than the summer line and suggests that these teams are about the same. My model sees value with Carolina but the magic +3 didn’t last long. I’ll still lean with the Panthers and I’d consider Carolina a Strong Opinion if that line went back up to +3.

Team Stats
Game Log

Panthers
Lions

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.5 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 47.2%
Sack Rate 8.3% 7.6%
Int Rate 4.2% 0.7%
Deep Pass Rate 20.5% 14.8%
Big Pass Yards 41.0% 25.5%
NYPP 6.5 5.3

Rush

Rush Plays 30.3 21.0
RB YPR 3.9 3.7
Stuff Rate 19.5% 28.2%
Succ Rush Plays 50.6% 44.4%
Big Rush Yards 36.3% 46.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.0

Game

All Snaps 62.8 57.3
Early Down Succ 50.0% 49.3%
Succ Rate 49.4% 46.3%
Big Yards Rate 39.2% 32.9%
Yards Per Play 5.1 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.3 28.4
Run Ratio 48.0% 37.2%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 28.8
Game Control 2.4 -2.4

Points 19.5 17.5

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	23 – 3 W	12.4	45.8% / 46.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.2% / 2.9%	7.1 / 4.3	39.0% / 26.7%	14.6% / 26.7%	2.9 / 3.4	65 / 54	42.6% / 48.7%	41.5% / 40.7%	29.7% / 33.6%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.9%	63.1% / 27.8%	33.7 / 30.1
2	BUF	9 – 3 W	4.0	50.0% / 35.7%	15.8% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 3.8	34.5% / 21.7%	37.9% / 39.1%	2.7 / 3.0	67 / 51	44.9% / 30.6%	43.3% / 29.4%	39.1% / 20.5%	3.8 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 45.1%	31.3 / 21.1
3	NO	13 – 34 L	-8.6	43.2% / 46.7%	10.8% / 3.3%	9.1% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.1	77.3% / 55.6%	4.5% / 25.9%	6.0 / 5.5	59 / 57	57.8% / 51.1%	55.9% / 50.9%	40.3% / 55.5%	4.9 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 47.4%	25.2 / 37.8
4	@NE	33 – 30 W	1.9	61.3% / 60.4%	6.5% / 6.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	51.7% / 73.7%	20.7% / 21.1%	4.8 / 4.2	60 / 67	54.9% / 66.7%	56.7% / 64.2%	48.0% / 22.0%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 0.0%	48.3% / 28.4%	26.7 / 26.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2

Carolina Panthers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 8

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis