Game Analysis
Note:
This was a 1-star Best Bet, with analysis released to clients.
Week 1 Methodology
With a higher degree of uncertainty surrounding teams beginning the season, game lines are the least correlated with actual performance in Week 1, with only 14% of the variance explained vs. 20% for weeks 2-17. Our Week 1 selections are based on advanced statistics (adjusted for down, distance and opponent quality), the significance of these factors was then run through various models to systematically determine variable importance and linear/non-linear effects. Model tuning, ensembling and testing was then performed to uncover game spread mispricings.
*DENVER (+3 even) over Carolina
Why Denver Will Win
Denver had the top ranked Defense last year (per normalized yards per played allowed) and defensive success tends to correlate more highly than other stats from previous year to current year success.
Typically swapping an all-time great QB and going with a 2nd year QB (with no starts) would mean rebuilding. However, DEN did not rely on Peyton Manning’s passing prowess last year and overall the DEN QB play was middle of the pack (Manning and Osweiller ranked 16th in adjusted net yards per pass), so the drop-off is not as significant versus transitioning from Peyton in any other year of his career.
Denver’s field position relative to its defensive strength was less than expected all year. However in the Super Bowl, the Defense recovered 3 of 4 fumbles and the special teams unit had a 61 yard punt return, which allowed the Defense to carry the Broncos to victory. The Broncos will not ask Siemian to win the game, however if he is able to limit mistakes and gain yards for field position, then he can allow the Denver defense more opportunities to repeat their Super Bowl Performance.
The 2015 Carolina Panthers opened the season with 60-1 odds to win Super Bowl 50, surprising everyone along their way to a 15-1 regular season mark and a trip to Santa Clara. One of the biggest drivers of the team’s success was how Cam Newton improved, sans his #1 target Kelvin Benjamin, who was lost in training camp. Cam took an unexpected giant leap forward in not only his explosive pass play ability, but also in his pass consistency. (Explosive play ability is determined based on down, distance and ability to make throws while consistency is based on ability to move the sticks, for sabermatricians, think Slugging and On Base Percentage). With the offense mostly intact from last year, and adding the aforementioned #1 WR Benjamin, Cam has the pieces to maintain or even continue his upward trajectory.
One of the teams biggest similarities in the two teams is how opponents attacked them last year, as most teams preferred to go directly at CAR and DEN with ~60% of run plays between the tackles. Both teams were up to the task as they were two of the top three defenses at drive-killing plays (plays that went for less than a yard on first or less than 30% of down and distance on any other down). CAR is poised to continue forcing inside runs and chase down lateral plays as its components of the LB core are intact, while there is more uncertainty surrounding Denver with the departures of front 7 starters M. Jackson and D. Trevathan.
Carolina was +20 in turnover differential last season and while the same defensive front 7 remains largely in place for Carolina, the secondary is an area in flux. CAR intercepted 24 passes last year for the 2nd highest interception rate in the NFL, this led to +14 of the +20 positive turnover margin. While Kurt Coleman led the team with 7 interceptions and is returning, outside starting CBs Josh Norman and Peanut Tillman are both gone. Interception rate and defensive pass efficiency are highly correlated in-season and negative regression is likely for the CAR Defensive pass unit (which is more important to overall defensive efficiency). On a player match-up basis, All-Pros, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will provide rookie CBs, James Braberry and Daryl Worley, an early season test.
Stylistically the game will match last year’s top ranked Denver run defense against a Carolina’s top-10 Run Offense (as measured by adjusted yards per play). Carolina was also top-10 team in big play run yardage (runs over 10 yards), while the Denver D ranked 6th at stopping the run. However, offensively big play run teams do not correlate season over season, while big play limiting run defenses do show more stickiness season to season.
The early season model shows value on the Broncos, so we will make Denver a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 at -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
28.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.2%
50.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.8%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
7.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
9.7%
3.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
0.0%
43.4%
-
NYPP
5.2
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.0
31.0
-
RB YPR
4.9
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
9.4%
19.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
68.8%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.4%
66.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
59.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
50.0%
-
Succ Rate
54.5%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
12.9%
54.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
28.0
-
Run Ratio
48.5%
52.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
28.9
-
Dominance Rating
4.1
-4.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.0
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.0%
41.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
7.7%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
3.8%
9.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
0.0%
-
NYPP
5.7
5.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
32.0
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
9.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.2%
68.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
66.7%
27.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
66.0
-
Early Down Succ
50.0%
52.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
54.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
54.7%
12.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
29.5
-
Run Ratio
52.5%
48.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
26.3
-
Dominance Rating
-4.1
4.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Time-weighted Score |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Time-weighted Score |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
21 – 20 W |
-4.1 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
7.1% /
8.8% |
7.7% /
3.2% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
45.2% /
68.8% |
19.4% /
9.4% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
59 /
66 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
47.5% /
54.5% |
54.7% /
12.9% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
48.5% |
28.9 /
26.3 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Denver Broncos
