Game Analysis

CHICAGO (-3.5) vs Carolina

· Bryce Young had only a 31% dropback success rate last week versus a Colts defense starting two backup cornerbacks and the rookie quarterback had three interceptions, two of which were returned by Indianapolis nickelback Kenny Moore for touchdowns. Carolina’s offense is completely broken, and I do not expect them to fix it for this game on a short week.

· Chicago’s defense has a 75.4% standard pass rush rate (9th-highest) and head coach Matt Eberflus is even more comfortable rushing with just four after trading for edge defender Montez Sweat. The Bears only had a 14.3% blitz rate on Derek Carr last week.

· Carolina’s passing offense is the worst in the NFL versus a standard pass rush with the yards per attempt at only 68% of their yards per attempt against a blitz.

· This will be another Tyson Bagent start for Chicago with Justin Fields likely back for week 11. Bagent is averaging 5.8 yppp and -0.08 EPA/play compared to Fields averaging 5.7 yppp and -0.05 EPA/play. Fields is a couple of points better due to his scrambling ability even though they have shown to be the same level of passer.

· The Bears yards per attempt versus zone coverage is just 70% of their yards per attempt against man (31st) and Bagent could struggle as the Panthers have an 89.4% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· However, Carolina’s defense is down starting cornerback Jaycee Horn and his backup CJ Henderson is out too. That leaves third-stringer Dicaprio Bootle to line up across from wide receiver DJ Moore, who has a 62% success rate (6th).

· Bagent should have clean pockets to target Moore on deep passes with starting LT Braxton Jones back in uniform. Jones is allowing a 5.4% pressure rate compared to backup Larry Borom surrendering an 11.1% pressure rate.

· Brian Burns leads Carolina’s defense with 21 pressures, but he suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of the last game and is out on Thursday night.

· Chicago’s offense is targeting running backs on 23.7% of passes (3rd-most) but the Panthers defense is relatively strong in this area allowing -0.11 EPA/target to running backs (12th).

· The Bears running backs will be better deployed on the ground as Carolina’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.09 EPA/rush and Chicago’s offense has a 43.8% rush success rate (6th).

· Our model favors the Bears by 6.4 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, but Carolina applies to a 122-55-3 bounce-back situation while Chicago applies to a 25-75-1 ATS situation. I used Carolina +3.5 in my spread pool (would use Chicago at -3).