Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – NEW YORK JETS (+3) over Buffalo
Buffalo’s historic turnover luck continued last week with 4 takeaways and no turnovers, which led to a 20-point win over Oakland despite being outplayed from the line of scrimmage 333 yards at 5.4 yard per play to 367 yards at 5.8 yppl by the Raiders. That was the third time this season, in just 7 games, that Buffalo won a game despite being outgained by 0.4 yppl or more and it all has to do with their extremely lucky +14 in turnover margin. I’m not saying the Bills should not be positive in turnovers – they should – but rather than they shouldn’t be anywhere close to being +2.0 in turnover margin per game.
This season the team that was outgained in yards per play has been just 37-82 straight up yet the Bills are 5-2 despite having been outgained in yppl in 5 of their 7 games. That shiny record has the Bills overrated and their -0.5 net yppl, which ranks 26th in the NFL, is more indicative of the talent level on this team. The Bills are more likely to be out-gained the rest of the season than they are of being anywhere close to their lucky +2.0 turnover margin average. Of course, we liked the Raiders last week for that very reason and that didn’t pan out. However, those turnovers are like a rubber band being stretched further and further. Eventually it’s going to snap and the recoil is going to be ugly for Bills’ fans who now have false high hopes.
One of the two games in which Buffalo actually did outplay their opponent from the line of scrimmage was their season opener – a 21-12 home win over the Jets. However, there’s reason to believe this game will be a different story. Buffalo’s offense does not travel well and ranks last in the league with 3.8 yppl in away games, which isn’t anything new for them. In fact, Buffalo’s offense ranked 5th at home last season and 27th on the road in yppl, which was by far the biggest disparity between home and away performance in the league.
While the Bills are covering spreads because of turnover luck the Jets are covering spreads (5-0-1 ATS recently) because they are simply underrated. New York was expected to be the worst team in the league but the Jets have been only 2 ½ points worse than an average team based on our predictive metrics. Buffalo, meanwhile, has been 2 points worse than average when factoring out their luck and the predictive ratings suggest that the Jets should be a small favorite in this game. Favorites that have an average turnover margin of +1.5 or higher are just 59-104-6 ATS from week 7 on and it is incredibly implausible that Buffalo will continue to be as fortunate as they’ve been. The Jets are a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.7
42.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.5%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
0.9%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.6%
33.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.3
23.9
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.7%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.2%
36.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.3%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
66.0
-
Early Down Succ
41.4%
45.1%
-
Succ Rate
39.7%
43.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.1
27.8
-
Run Ratio
52.5%
35.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.3
26.5
-
Game Control
1.1
-1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.5%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
3.7%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.6%
21.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.0%
42.7%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
30.4
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
31.6%
27.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.9%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.1%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
66.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.9%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
41.6%
44.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.9
27.8
-
Run Ratio
41.9%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
28.5
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
21 – 12 W |
3.8 |
43.3% /
37.5% |
6.7% /
2.5% |
3.6% /
5.1% |
7.3 /
4.4 |
33.3% /
25.0% |
24.4% /
31.3% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
75 /
56 |
37.7% /
35.9% |
37.3% /
33.9% |
68.1% /
26.5% |
5.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
28.6% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
3 – 9 L |
-4.0 |
35.7% /
50.0% |
10.7% /
15.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
21.7% /
34.5% |
39.1% /
37.9% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
51 /
67 |
30.6% /
44.9% |
29.4% /
43.3% |
20.5% /
39.1% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.1% /
43.3% |
21.1 /
31.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
13.3% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.6 /
5.9 |
27.0% /
39.1% |
27.0% /
26.1% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
67 /
66 |
42.2% /
38.0% |
37.3% /
37.9% |
44.4% /
59.3% |
4.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.2% /
34.8% |
39.8 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
23 – 17 W |
2.0 |
43.5% /
48.8% |
13.0% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
23.7% /
27.6% |
3.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
72 |
47.7% /
56.1% |
44.3% /
52.8% |
27.6% /
30.9% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
62.3% /
40.3% |
21.9 /
25.9 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
16 – 20 L |
-3.1 |
32.6% /
43.2% |
14.0% /
2.7% |
2.7% /
5.6% |
3.2 /
8.7 |
45.8% /
22.6% |
20.8% /
22.6% |
3.4 /
2.2 |
67 /
68 |
38.8% /
37.0% |
37.3% /
33.8% |
22.2% /
47.7% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
35.8% /
45.6% |
34.8 /
25.6 |
| 7 |
TB |
30 – 27 W |
2.0 |
44.1% /
64.4% |
2.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.7 /
8.4 |
42.4% /
32.0% |
27.3% /
20.0% |
5.2 /
2.8 |
67 /
70 |
37.3% /
52.5% |
43.3% /
52.9% |
65.0% /
26.4% |
6.5 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
2.9% |
49.3% /
35.7% |
33.7 /
27.0 |
| 8 |
OAK |
34 – 14 W |
5.5 |
55.6% /
49.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.1% |
6.1 /
6.4 |
45.0% /
42.9% |
17.5% /
14.3% |
4.2 /
3.9 |
67 /
63 |
55.3% /
51.0% |
49.3% /
47.6% |
48.6% /
28.9% |
5.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
22.2% |
35.7 /
22.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
31.3% /
57.5% |
43.8% /
20.0% |
8.0 /
4.4 |
68 /
76 |
37.3% /
50.8% |
38.2% /
44.7% |
68.6% /
27.6% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
52.6% |
29.5 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
9.1% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
19.0% /
45.5% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
1.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.3% |
38.9% /
45.7% |
32.1% /
40.1% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.9% /
47.1% |
29.0 /
30.1 |
| 6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% /
39.5% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
24.0% /
7.7% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
75 /
64 |
50.9% /
49.0% |
49.3% /
48.4% |
46.0% /
29.5% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
40.6% |
24.0 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% /
52.5% |
10.0% /
7.5% |
3.7% /
5.4% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
34.8% /
24.0% |
30.4% /
44.0% |
4.0 /
2.1 |
53 /
65 |
37.5% /
42.3% |
35.8% /
41.5% |
61.9% /
53.8% |
5.2 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
43.4% /
38.5% |
29.3 /
31.2 |
| 8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
8.2 |
22.7% /
37.5% |
36.4% /
28.1% |
2.0 /
4.4 |
57 /
62 |
41.5% /
45.8% |
40.4% /
43.5% |
40.1% /
53.1% |
4.9 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
3.2% |
38.6% /
51.6% |
36.9 /
26.1 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
New York Jets