Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Buffalo Team Total Over (26.5 -115)

Alternate play is Buffalo -6.5

Lean – Over (45)

Lean – Buffalo (-6.5) over NEW ORLEANS

The Bills consistently play in some of the worst weather of any team in the NFL. The average wind speed in a game across all teams has been 6 mph while Buffalo has played half of their games with the wind of at least 12 mph. Since the beginning of last season, the Bills have averaged 31.9 points in 10 games with better than average scoring conditions and only failed to reach 27 points once in those ten games. Josh Allen will be in perfect weather on turf at the Superdome Thanksgiving night and he will likely score at least 27. Saints edge defender Marcus Davenport (shoulder) is out, and he leads the team with a 14.1% pressure rate.

The Bills surrendered 5.7 yards per rush last Sunday with LB Tremaine Edmunds not in uniform due to a hamstring injury, but Edmunds will be back on the field this week and the Saints likely won’t be able to count on the ground game without Alvin Kamara. Edmunds has a 10.1% run stop rate (8th) and is a crucial cog in Buffalo’s 2nd-rated rush defense. Meanwhile, fellow linebacker Matt Milano is conceding only 0.63 yards per cover snap and will take away any underneath passing by Trevor Siemian.

Our model favors the Bills by 10.2 points, with a predicted total of 51.9 points, and the best way to play this game is with the Bills’ team total over, which is a 1-Star Best Bet at 26.5 points or less up to -120 odds. The alternate play is Buffalo at -6.5 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Saints

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.40 35.80
Succ Pass Plays 51.0% 41.1%
Sack Rate 3.7% 5.3%
Int Rate 2.3% 4.4%
Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 13.3%
Big Pass Yards 38.4% 29.5%
NYPP 6.75 5.14

Rush

Rush Plays 25.30 24.60
RB YPR 4.17 4.04
Stuff Rate 24.1% 29.7%
Succ Rush Plays 51.0% 44.7%
Big Rush Yards 42.0% 45.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.70 4.14

Game

All Snaps 65.70 60.40
Early Down Succ 52.8% 45.8%
Succ Rate 51.0% 42.5%
Big Yards Rate 39.5% 35.0%
Yards Per Play 5.96 4.73
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.01 29.03
Run Ratio 38.5% 40.7%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 6.68 -6.68

Points 29.50 17.60

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	16 – 23 L	2.06	44.4% / 44.1%	5.6% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.70 / 5.21	48.0% / 33.3%	16.0% / 42.9%	4.68 / 3.57	79 / 55	47.4% / 42.9%	45.6% / 40.0%	22.7% / 43.0%	4.70 / 4.58	1.3% / 0.0%	31.6% / 38.2%	32.64 / 29.45
2	@MIA	35 – 0 W	18.46	38.2% / 36.0%	2.9% / 12.0%	3.0% / 2.3%	5.03 / 2.90	43.3% / 25.0%	26.7% / 35.0%	4.77 / 3.55	64 / 70	36.0% / 33.3%	40.6% / 32.9%	52.5% / 11.9%	4.91 / 3.09	1.6% / 2.9%	46.9% / 28.6%	31.77 / 33.58
3	WAS	43 – 21 W	13.76	63.6% / 42.3%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 8.0%	8.16 / 9.00	51.5% / 41.7%	24.2% / 29.2%	3.70 / 3.21	77 / 50	59.0% / 47.2%	58.4% / 42.0%	28.3% / 46.0%	6.25 / 6.22	0.0% / 2.0%	42.9% / 48.0%	40.75 / 27.00
4	HST	40 – 0 W	15.47	61.3% / 29.2%	3.2% / 12.5%	3.3% / 19.0%	8.10 / 2.54	62.5% / 27.8%	17.5% / 22.2%	4.98 / 2.67	71 / 42	67.9% / 33.3%	62.0% / 28.6%	45.3% / 16.3%	6.34 / 2.60	0.0% / 2.4%	56.3% / 42.9%	39.17 / 30.92
5	@KC	38 – 20 W	8.36	46.2% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	12.12 / 4.86	50.0% / 56.5%	35.7% / 21.7%	4.32 / 5.22	54 / 79	48.8% / 56.3%	48.1% / 51.9%	64.7% / 18.9%	8.07 / 4.96	0.0% / 1.3%	51.9% / 29.1%	28.50 / 26.40
6	@TEN	31 – 34 L	2.27	54.0% / 44.8%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 3.4%	6.70 / 7.45	43.5% / 45.5%	21.7% / 31.8%	3.57 / 6.64	73 / 51	52.6% / 45.0%	50.7% / 45.1%	26.4% / 54.7%	5.71 / 7.10	0.0% / 0.0%	31.5% / 43.1%	25.80 / 28.55
8	MIA	26 – 11 W	3.32	46.5% / 39.0%	0.0% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.79 / 4.73	34.8% / 43.5%	39.1% / 26.1%	4.43 / 2.96	66 / 64	42.3% / 44.7%	42.4% / 40.6%	28.2% / 35.5%	5.32 / 4.09	0.0% / 1.6%	34.8% / 35.9%	30.00 / 28.27
9	@JAX	6 – 9 L	-0.59	43.1% / 33.3%	7.8% / 6.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.49 / 4.63	35.7% / 33.3%	21.4% / 37.0%	5.14 / 2.93	65 / 57	45.7% / 36.6%	41.5% / 33.3%	29.5% / 33.5%	4.63 / 3.82	1.5% / 1.8%	21.5% / 47.4%	27.67 / 32.90
10	@NYJ	45 – 17 W	18.89	66.7% / 41.7%	6.7% / 2.1%	3.6% / 8.5%	11.67 / 6.17	66.7% / 50.0%	25.0% / 40.9%	5.79 / 3.18	54 / 70	69.6% / 48.1%	66.7% / 44.3%	60.6% / 33.4%	9.06 / 5.23	1.9% / 1.4%	44.4% / 31.4%	33.69 / 25.58
11	IND	15 – 41 L	-15.20	51.2% / 45.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.27 / 5.30	69.2% / 65.2%	7.7% / 19.6%	7.00 / 5.74	54 / 66	58.1% / 58.5%	55.6% / 59.1%	27.9% / 43.0%	5.69 / 5.61	0.0% / 0.0%	24.1% / 69.7%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	38 – 3 W	15.26	61.9% / 35.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.19 / 5.03	53.8% / 20.0%	23.1% / 13.3%	4.38 / 2.87	60 / 52	56.3% / 35.1%	56.7% / 30.8%	36.0% / 25.8%	5.37 / 4.40	0.0% / 1.9%	65.0% / 28.8%	36.44 / 22.78
2	@CAR	7 – 26 L	-11.48	19.2% / 57.5%	15.4% / 5.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	3.08 / 7.35	35.3% / 33.3%	29.4% / 39.4%	2.82 / 2.70	43 / 73	32.1% / 44.8%	25.6% / 46.6%	39.0% / 25.1%	2.98 / 5.25	0.0% / 0.0%	39.5% / 45.2%	33.25 / 29.92
3	@NE	28 – 13 W	10.20	50.0% / 35.8%	12.5% / 3.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	4.58 / 4.74	50.0% / 41.2%	18.4% / 23.5%	3.74 / 2.88	62 / 70	53.2% / 37.0%	50.0% / 37.1%	9.3% / 28.8%	4.06 / 4.29	0.0% / 0.0%	61.3% / 24.3%	32.92 / 27.92
4	NYG	21 – 27 L	1.41	57.7% / 57.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.8% / 2.5%	9.04 / 10.05	61.5% / 35.0%	2.6% / 15.0%	4.36 / 4.15	65 / 60	60.8% / 53.1%	60.0% / 50.0%	22.0% / 54.0%	6.23 / 8.08	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 33.3%	26.50 / 24.09
5	@WAS	33 – 22 W	3.77	40.6% / 41.9%	6.3% / 4.7%	3.3% / 4.9%	8.47 / 5.63	30.4% / 51.5%	21.7% / 18.2%	4.26 / 3.97	55 / 76	36.6% / 51.8%	36.4% / 46.1%	60.7% / 40.9%	6.71 / 4.91	1.8% / 0.0%	41.8% / 43.4%	32.85 / 27.67
7	@SEA	13 – 10 W	-1.81	48.6% / 29.6%	5.4% / 18.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.68 / 4.78	41.9% / 35.7%	25.8% / 28.6%	3.03 / 3.21	68 / 55	50.9% / 38.5%	45.6% / 32.7%	26.6% / 58.4%	4.47 / 3.98	1.5% / 0.0%	45.6% / 50.9%	30.36 / 24.18
8	TB	36 – 27 W	2.59	37.5% / 50.0%	2.5% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	5.23 / 7.95	34.4% / 50.0%	12.5% / 28.6%	4.75 / 5.07	72 / 58	35.2% / 48.8%	36.1% / 50.0%	35.1% / 55.6%	5.01 / 7.26	0.0% / 1.7%	44.4% / 24.1%	34.00 / 26.08
9	ATL	25 – 27 L	-6.11	50.0% / 56.3%	2.3% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.07 / 10.38	44.0% / 16.0%	16.0% / 44.0%	4.36 / 1.36	69 / 57	52.6% / 40.5%	47.8% / 38.6%	23.5% / 54.6%	5.45 / 6.42	1.4% / 0.0%	36.2% / 43.9%	33.20 / 29.27
10	@TEN	21 – 23 L	-4.91	40.0% / 44.8%	10.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.18 / 6.83	52.4% / 37.9%	28.6% / 37.9%	4.10 / 2.28	61 / 58	48.9% / 46.7%	44.3% / 41.4%	48.9% / 31.9%	6.11 / 4.55	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 50.0%	28.10 / 35.09
11	@PHI	29 – 40 L	-13.03	42.5% / 33.3%	0.0% / 11.1%	5.0% / 0.0%	5.35 / 5.11	50.0% / 54.0%	18.2% / 18.0%	4.95 / 4.84	62 / 77	44.9% / 43.6%	45.2% / 46.8%	45.8% / 46.3%	5.21 / 4.94	1.6% / 1.3%	35.5% / 64.9%	0.00 / 0.00

Buffalo Bills @

New Orleans Saints

Thu, Nov 25

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis