Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NEW ENGLAND (+8.5) over Buffalo

· New England’s offense can look like it’s stuck in the mud at points because they do not have the wide receivers to separate versus man coverage. Mac Jones’ yards per attempt against zone this year is 87% higher than it is versus man. The Patriots receivers have a favorable matchup this week as the Bills use an 83.1% zone rate (7th-highest).

· New England’s offense is targeting running backs on 22.9% of passes (6th-most) and Buffalo’s defense is without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano. The Patriots will find short passes and screens in the wind on Sunday as the Bills are surrendering a 49% pass success rate to running backs (27th).

· New England’s offensive line leads the NFL with 431 snaps from rookies, but they might finally get to bench guards Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi. Starting guards Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu have been practicing all week.

· Buffalo interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency but he is out for this game along with interior defender DaQuan Jones, whose 15 pressure ranks 21st.

· Bills edge defender Von Miller is playing his way back into shape and he has just 1 pressure in his first two games. Miller will be contained by Patriots LT Trent Brown, who ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs’ 53% target rate last game was the highest for any receiver this year and he will line up across from cornerback JC Jackson, who opposing quarterbacks have been challenging since he got to New England. Still, he has conceded just 21 yards on 10 targets in two games.

· The Patriots could be without edge defenders Josh Uche, Keion White, and Matthew Judon on Sunday. Those three have combined for 53.8% of the snaps at edge rusher for New England’s defense this season and 68.4% of the pressures.

· Strong wind gusts and a right shoulder injury could limit Josh Allen this week. The Bills offense ranks 5th in EPA/rush but they will be shut down as the Patriots conceding just a 31.4% rush success rate (2nd).

· Our model makes Buffalo a 7.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 42.9 points. This play is based on the significant matchup advantage that New England has in this game and an 85-32 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams in a game in which the average total combined points margin is more than 20 points. In this case, New England has been outscored by 13.3 points per game this season and Buffalo has outscored their opponents by 14.0 points per game. That’s a total differential of 27.3 points. When it’s that lopsided the underperforming team tends to cover the number. Plus, Bill Belichick’s teams are 16-4 ATS when they are 2 or more games below .500 ATS (would be 17-3 ATS if not for that safety at the end of last week’s 4-point loss to the Raiders), which includes 7-3 ATS in the post-Brady era. The Patriots are not nearly as bad as their scoring makes them look and Belichick is likely to right the ship.

New England is a Strong Opinion at +7.5 points or more.