Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (40.5) – MINNESOTA (-16.5) vs Buffalo

The Bills played so poorly last week that veteran CB Vontae Davis retired at halftime, leaving them thin of talent at the cornerback position with the exception of Tre’Davious White, who has allowed just 0.2 yards per cover snap (3^rd among corners so far this season). I expect White to battle with Stefon Diggs, but Adam Thielen should be in line for a productive afternoon, especially considering the middle of the field is likely to be wide-open. Bills rookie Tremaine Edmunds is getting torched in the passing game on crossing routes surrendering 2.69 yards per cover snap, the most among qualifying linebackers, and Kyle Rudolph should be dangerous as well. Still, Minnesota’s advantage in the passing game might be somewhat negated if they jump out to an early lead and turn to a struggling ground game (without guard Nick Easton) that ranks 29th in my metrics. The Vikings were a half yard per play worse in the 6 games Easton missed last season and they planned on having him back for 2018 before he required neck surgery last month.

Buffalo’s offense is allowing a 14.3% sack rate this year, including 5 sacks last week to a Chargers team without pass rushers Joey Bosa or Corey Liuget. I expect Josh Allen to be running for his life on Sunday facing a Vikings defensive line with 3 Pro-Bowlers. Furthermore, LeSean McCoy is dealing with a cracked rib cage and is unlikely to provide a spark in the ground game.

I don’t have an opinion on the side of the game from a betting standpoint, but we have the Minnesota at a greater than 90% chance of winning, which is obviously rare in the NFL, and I recommend using the Vikings as your survivor pick this week, especially with no other spreads above 7 points on the board.

I’m going to lean over the total in this game, as our model projects a true total of 43 points and low totals typically go over early in the season as the market tends to overreact to poor offensive performance in the first two weeks. Week 3 overs are 73-34-1 since 2000 when the total is 42 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Vikings

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.5 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 28.7% 54.0%
Sack Rate 14.3% 5.9%
Int Rate 6.1% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 30.8% 4.6%
Big Pass Yards 48.7% 38.0%
NYPP 3.6 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 30.5
RB YPR 3.5 3.7
Stuff Rate 31.8% 35.1%
Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 38.7%
Big Rush Yards 46.7% 55.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.8

Game

All Snaps 60.5 65.0
Early Down Succ 35.0% 49.4%
Succ Rate 32.3% 46.6%
Big Yards Rate 49.5% 43.5%
Yards Per Play 3.7 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 31.9
Run Ratio 36.4% 47.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 38.9
Game Control -20.2 20.2

Points 11.5 39.0

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	3 – 47 L	-25.9	20.5% / 42.5%	15.4% / 5.0%	6.1% / 0.0%	1.8 / 6.3	22.7% / 44.1%	31.8% / 29.4%	3.8 / 3.4	61 / 74	24.4% / 43.3%	21.3% / 43.2%	39.9% / 43.1%	2.5 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.4%	36.1% / 45.9%	30.5 / 41.3
2	LAC	20 – 31 L	-14.5	36.8% / 65.5%	13.2% / 6.9%	6.1% / 0.0%	5.5 / 8.3	54.5% / 33.3%	31.8% / 40.7%	3.8 / 4.1	60 / 56	45.7% / 55.6%	43.3% / 50.0%	59.0% / 44.0%	4.9 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 48.2%	26.7 / 36.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9

Buffalo Bills @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Sep 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis