Game Analysis

Note: This play was released early in the week when the total was 49.5 points. The total  has dropped to 48 points and would be just a Lean under at that number.

Strong Opinion – Under (49.5) – MIAMI (+3) vs Buffalo

· The winner of this game will win the AFC East. The Dolphins will get the 6-seed if they lose. The Bills could miss the playoffs entirely with a loss depending on results earlier in the day.

· Buffalo is conceding only 17.5 points per game since the bye in week 13 and they look like a top 10 defense again heading into January.

· The Bills have a 38.8% pressure rate (8th) and just got interior defender DaQuan Jones back on the field last week. Jones had 15 pressures in the first 4 games of the season (8th) before he went out early in week 5.

· Miami has no starters remaining on the interior offensive line and they will likely be without backup center Liam Eichenberg on Sunday night as well. The Dolphins will struggle versus Jones and interior defender Ed Oliver, who ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano is the only remaining Bills starter on defense sidelined with Jones back. Buffalo’s defense is surrendering a 52% pass success rate to running backs (31st) mostly due to the loss of Milano. Miami’s offense is targeting running backs on 23.8% of passes (6th-most) and Tua Tagovailoa will need the screen game humming to slow down the Bills interior pass rush.

· Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle has a 61% success rate (2nd) but he will likely be limited by a high ankle sprain if he is able to suit up at all.

· Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill had a season-low 3 receptions in the first game versus Buffalo’s defense. Hill leads the NFL with 20 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards but had none in week 4 against the Bills.

· Buffalo’s offense is averaging 0.02 EPA/rush (3rd) but the ground game will be shut down as the Dolphins have the league’s best run defense according to our metrics.

· Josh Allen is targeting tight ends on 23.4% of passes (8th-most) and he has a favorable matchup versus Miami’s defense surrendering a 57% success rate to tight ends (26th).

· Dolphins starting CB Xavien Howard is likely out with a foot injury. Howard allowing 1.5 yards per target fewer than backup Eli Apple. Allen will pick on Apple throwing downfield to Bills WR Gabe Davis, who is averaging 0.39 EPA/target (20th).

· The Bills offensive line has conceded a league-low 10 sacks and Allen should be kept clean as Miami’s defense will be without starting edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Buffalo LG Connor McGovern ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain interior defender Zach Sieler, who has 51 pressures (11th).

· Our model favors the Bills by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 45.8 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 48.5 or more.