Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **MIAMI (+6) over Buffalo

Lean – Under 52

· Miami’s offense is off to a flying start with the wide receivers giving defenses all sorts of problems to solve. Tyreek Hill (284 yards) and Jalen Waddle (240 yards) currently rank first and second in receiving yards, respectively.

· Waddle gained 73 receiving yards on go routes last Sunday which was more than he did all of last season (43). Hill gained 108 receiving yards on go routes in week 2, which was 76% of his 2021 go route yardage (147) in one game.

· Buffalo’s defense leads the league with a 93% zone rate, but it only works because of the two All-Pro safeties covering for inexperienced cornerbacks. However, Micah Hyde (neck) and Jordan Poyer (foot) are banged-up which could prove disastrous results versus the speed of the Dolphins. Furthermore, starting CB Dane Jackson (neck) now will join starting CB Tre’Davious White on the sidelines which leaves the Bills with two rookie cornerbacks against Hill and Waddle.

· The safeties are either going to get beat deep or they will take extra drops which will provide plenty of space in the underneath zones which Tua Tagovailoa is more than willing to hit. Tagovailoa threw 56% of his attempts last week within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Waddle has 116 yards after the catch this season (2nd) and Hill has gained 104 yards after the catch (3rd).

· Buffalo’s defense has a 42% pressure rate despite blitzing on only 6 snaps in two games. The major contributor for the Bills is the addition of edge defender Von Miller, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency. Although Miller will be neutralized this week by Miami’s new LT Terron Armstead, who has allowed just three quarterback pressures on 88 pass-blocking snaps this year.

· Josh Allen is averaging 8.4 yppp and there’s not much negative to note about the Bills on offense right now. Stefon Diggs secured 12 receptions for 148 receiving yards, six first downs, and three touchdowns versus the Titans last Monday night. However, there are solid reasons to think the Dolphins can hold Allen’s offense under 30 points, which an opposing defense has not accomplished in his previous four starts dating back to last season. 

· Diggs has a more challenging matchup this week. He gained just 6.7 yards per target in two games against the Dolphins last season in large part due to Miami Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard.

· Buffalo’s RBs have seen the target share go from 15.4% under Brian Daboll last year to 23.4% with new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. However, the Dolphins have conceded just 12 receiving yards to running backs in 2022 after allowing 5.0 yards per target (4th) last year.

· Our model has the Bills by just 3.0 points, with a predicted total of 48.0 points and Miami applies to a very good 87-23-1 ATS situation that plays on good offenses at home against elite defensive teams. Also, teams that have scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games, as the Bills have, are just 19-55 ATS since 1980 and the market has overreacted to Buffalo’s dominating start to the season.

Miami is a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and 1-Star down to +5.