Game Analysis

Lean – LA CHARGERS (+12) over Buffalo

· Bills’ running back James Cook had a career-high 25 rushing attempts and a 64% success rate in last week’s win versus the Cowboys and I expect to see plenty more of Buffalo’s ground game on Saturday night as the Chargers’ rush defense ranks 30th according to our numbers.

· Josh Allen did not throw an interception last week and he shouldn’t have 14 interceptions this year (2nd-most) as he hasn’t been as wild as other seasons, recording just a 2.5% PFF turnover worth play rate (4th-lowest).

· Allen can continue to safe throws this week as RB James Cook is averaging 1.71 yards per route run (3rd) and Los Angeles is allowing 0.09 EPA/target to running backs (28th).

· Bills LG Connor McGovern has conceded only 19 pressures (12th-fewest) and he will contain interior defender Morgan Fox, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Chargers’ backup Easton Stick averaged 6.7 yppp against the Raiders, with most of his success coming in garbage time, which was most of the game in their lopsided 21-63 loss.

· Los Angeles WR Keenan Allen has a 59% success rate (8th) and he missed Stick’s first start and might be out again this week. A banged-up Allen would struggle against Buffalo nickelback Taron Johnson, who is allowing just 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).

· Stick will not have clean pockets to work from in this game. The Chargers lost backup center Will Clapp and it’ll be 3rd string C Brenden Jaimes versus interior defender Ed Oliver, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Bills edge defender Greg Rousseau ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from RT Trey Pipkins, who has surrendered 48 pressures (2nd-most).

· Stick will get the ball out quickly to RB Austin Ekeler, who is averaging 1.39 yards per route run (8th). Buffalo’s defense is allowing a league-high 52% pass success rate to running backs so Ekeler should have a productive game catching passes.

· Los Angeles fired Brandon Staley and made Giff Smith the interim head coach. We could see a boost particularly from the defense as Smith was the outside linebackers coach previously. Teams are 15-11 ATS since 2010 the game after firing a head coach with the Panthers not covering being the only instance in 2023.

· Home underdogs of more than 4 points are 45-22 ATS the week after losing by 35 points or more, including 10-2 ATS getting more than 10 points, and the market appears to have overreacted to last Thursday’s result.

· Our model favors the Bills by 10.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points.