Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY

· Buffalo’s defense is a shell of itself without LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White, and DT DaQuan Jones, but they were built to stop Kansas City’s offense nonetheless as the Bills saw the Chiefs as their main obstacle in the way of making the Super Bowl.

· Buffalo’s defense is conceding a 50% success rate to tight ends (8th) and they will limit TE Travis Kelce, who is averaging 0.50 EPA/target (3rd).

· Bills nickelback Taron Johnson is allowing only 0.72 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd) and he will shut down slot WR Rashee Rice, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (8th).

· Buffalo’s defense is surrendering a 53% pass success rate to running backs (31st) and could leak some screens to RB Isiah Pacheco, who is averaging 0.14 EPA/target (7th) but he is banged up and might not be as included in the gameplan as usual.

· Patrick Mahomes will have to look deep to WR Justin Watson and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling and pray the two can haul them in after they’ve combined for 5 crucial drops in 2023.

· Bills interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be contained as only 37% of Kansas City’s pressures this year have been charged to the interior offensive line (3rd-fewest).

· Chiefs starting LT Donovan Smith could be out, leaving backup Wanya Morris to line up across from edge defender Leonard Floyd, who has 9.5 sacks (11th).

· Kansas City’s defense is allowing -0.06 EPA/target to tight ends (4th) and they should theoretically be able to limit TE Dalton Kincaid, who has a 65% success rate (2nd). However, LB Drue Tranquill left the last game with a concussion and LB Nick Bolton might not be quite ready to return by Sunday.

· Chiefs’ 3rd-string linebacker Jack Cochrane would be a problem in coverage versus Kincaid as well as in the run game. Kansas City’s defense is already allowing 0.01 EPA/rush (31st) and Buffalo’s offense has a 45.0% rush success rate (3rd).

· Bills rookie RG O’Cyrus Torrence will struggle against interior defender Chris Jones, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 50.0 points, but the matchups favor Buffalo and I think the fair line is pick.