Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *BALTIMORE (+3 Even) over Buffalo

Strong Opinion – Under (50.5)

· Baltimore has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and the Ravens have only been home underdogs twice with Lamar Jackson starting since he took the job in 2018. Baltimore beat New England as a 3-point dog in week 9 of 2019 and beat Kansas City in week 2 last season when the Chiefs were favored by 4. The Ravens are live again to beat the Bills on Sunday.

· Buffalo safety Micah Hyde is out for the season with a cervical disc herniation which gives Baltimore’s offense some favorable matchups. Jackson has thrown 21% of his attempts with at least 20 air yards (3rd-highest) and Ravens WR Rashod Bateman has two of those deep receptions (2nd). Bateman should be featured in the vertical passing game against backup rookie CB Kaiir Elam, especially with starting Hyde sidelined.

· Baltimore’s tight ends have a 51.8% target share, the next closest offense (ATL) has a 31.6% target share to TEs. Mark Andrews is leading all tight ends gaining 2.75 yards per route run and he will find space in the seams with Hyde not on the field.

· Josh Allen was pressured on 33 dropbacks last week, the most we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 55. I expect the Ravens to disrupt Allen again in this game.

· Baltimore interior defender Justin Madubuike ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency and Bills RG Ryan Bates has allowed the most pressures (9) on Buffalo’s offensive line.

· Josh Allen might be being muzzled by new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Allen is averaging -1.2 air yards to the sticks which is a full yard below his mark last season.

· The Bills are getting by because a league-high 66% of Allen’s pass attempts on 3rd down have converted. The NFL average is 35% and Allen will not sustain this level on third downs.

· Baltimore’s starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters have both missed snaps this season, but they are getting healthier, and the pair allowed only three catches on seven targets for 41 yards against the Patriots. Humphrey and Peters each also picked off Mac Jones last week.

It is going to be very windy with some rain in Baltimore today with scoring conditions about 6 points worse than average. That has not fully been factored into the total.

· Our model has the Ravens by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points.

Baltimore is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 at -115 odds or better and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 50 or higher.