Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – San Francisco Team Total Over (26.5 -125)

Alternate play is 1-Star Over (46.5) for the game up to 47 points

Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Baltimore

· San Francisco traded for RB Christian McCaffrey in week 7 last year and Brock Purdy took the reigns in week 12. The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 17 out of Purdy’s 23 career games.

· It moves to 17 of 22 excluding the NFC Championship last season when Purdy tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow after 5 dropbacks.

· Three of the games San Francisco’s offense didn’t reach 27 points this year were without All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who leads the NFL averaging 0.71 EPA/target.

· Samuel also missed three weeks in 2022 after Purdy took over including the game in Seattle where they scored 21 points.

· The 49ers at full strength with Purdy have failed to reach 27 points only once in 16 games.

· Baltimore’s defense is allowing a 40.0% success rate (5th) but San Francisco’s offense has scored at least 27 in 3 of 4 games versus defenses ranked top 10 in success rate.

· Ravens TE Mark Andrews led the NFL 65% success rate before an ankle injury knocked him out against the Bengals. Backup TE Isaiah Likely is one of 4 tight ends averaging more than 2 yards per route run in the last two weeks but he will be shut down as the 49ers are allowing a league-low 42% success rate to tight ends.

· San Francisco edge rusher Chase Young has 58 pressures (14th) and he will be menacing on Lamar Jackson’s blindside lining up across from LT Ronnie Stanley, who ranks 2nd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

· The 49ers are in a strong situation, as they apply to a 116-48-3 ATS situation that plays on good offensive teams at home against good defensive teams. SF also applies to a 71-17-1 ATS Monday night situation.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 6.0 points, with a predicted total of 51.7 points. We like the Niners based on the strong situation and the model shows Best Bet value on the Over. The combination leads us to a Best Bet on the 49ers team total over. San Francisco is 8-1-1 Over on their Team Total this season in the games in which LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel have played and the Niners are 70% over their Team Total when Brock Purdy is the quarterback (excluding last season’s NFC Championship game when he was injured early in the game).

1-Star Best Bet on San Francisco Team Total Over 26.5 (-125) at Over 27 -120 or better. Alternate play is 1-Star Over (46.5) for the game up to 47 points.