Game Analysis

Baltimore (-2.5) vs NEW ENGLAND

· Baltimore’s coverage fell apart down the stretch last Sunday against Tua Tagovailoa. CB Marlon Humphrey conceded just one catch on five targets before exiting the game early in the fourth quarter, but every other Ravens defender was a disaster. CB Marcus Peters (groin) is banged-up and nickelback Kyle Fuller is out for the season because he tore his left ACL. 

· Baltimore backup rookie cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis and linebacker Patrick Queen each gave up seven receptions for over 100 yards. Mac Jones will look for running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson versus Queen on screens and Texas routes. 

· New England’s slot WR Jakobi Meyers is likely out. Meyers is a security blanket averaging 2.63 yards per route run in the slot (6th) and he is worth 0.5 points.

· Baltimore RT Morgan Moses ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency and he will battle with edge defender Matthew Judon, who has 61 pressures in 2021 (12th). Although I do not expect Lamar Jackson to have a huge day throwing the football.

· Ravens WR Rashod Bateman is doing well in his elevated role (after the Marquise Brown departure) averaging 3.55 yards per route run but he will be locked down by CB Jonathan Jones, who has allowed only 50 yards in coverage this season.

· Baltimore’s tight ends have a league-leading 46.6% target share, the next closest tight ends are at 31.5%. Mark Andrews leads the NFL averaging 2.69 yards per route run but he will be bottled up on Sunday. The Patriots conceded just 5.1 yards per target to TEs last year and only 37 yards in the first two weeks of 2022.

· Our model has the Ravens by 2.9 with a predicted total of 45.4.