Game Analysis

Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Baltimore

· Baltimore’s offense averaged 0.16 EPA/play in week 14 (2nd) mostly due to the emergence of TE Isaiah Likely and WR Odell Beckham, who had 97 yards.

· Likely averaged 11.9 yards per target against the Rams but the backup tight end will be shut down on Sunday night as Jacksonville’s defense is conceding a 48% success rate to tight ends (5th).

· Beckham is averaging 1.69 more yards per route run in the 4 games he hasn’t been listed on the injury report this season (i.e. when he’s been healthy). Beckham will need to continue this pace for Lamar Jackson to have enough options without TE Mark Andrews, who was averaging 0.56 EPA/target (2nd) before his possible season-ending left ankle injury.

· Jaguars’ cornerback Tyson Campbell has only suited up in 2 of the last 7 games and backup Montaric Brown is surrendering 1.61 yards per cover snap (4th-worst) but it looks like Campbell will be back on the field this week to contain Beckham.

· Trevor Lawrence averaged 8.7 yppp when throwing on the move in his first 12 games but just 2.8 yppp on the same throws in last week’s loss to the Browns while dealing with the right ankle sprain. Lawrence has returned to a full practice workload for this game, and I expect him to be better on the move.

· Jacksonville’s offensive line conceded only 8.3 pressures per game over the first 13 weeks before allowing 17 pressures in Cleveland without three starters.

· The Jaguars will get back starting LG Ezra Cleveland and LT Walker Little, who ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Jacksonville RG Brandon Scherff has only conceded 14 pressures (3rd-fewest) and he will shut down interior defender Justin Madubuike, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Ravens’ safety Kyle Hamilton is allowing just 0.45 yards per slot cover snap (2nd) but he left last game with an MCL sprain in the third quarter. Hamilton is worth 0.8 points to Baltimore’s defense according to our numbers.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 2.3 points, with a predicted total of 41.7 points, and the Jags apply to a 40-9-5 ATS late-season home underdog bounce-back situation based on their poor performances over the last two weeks.