Game Analysis

CLEVELAND (+2) vs Baltimore

Note: This game was released to clients as a Strong Opinion 1st-Half Over 19 before Deshaun Watson was declared out.

· The Deshaun Watson is out, but Dorian Thompson Robinson played well in the preseason and the coaching staff is high on him DTR will be looking  for Amari Cooper, who leads all wide receivers with 27.3 expected points added. Cooper has a favorable matchup across from backup Ravens cornerback Brandon Stephens on Sunday.

· Baltimore’s defense will be without two starting edge rushers on Sunday as well as the continued absence of top cornerback Marlon Humphrey. The Ravens signed edge defender Kyle Van Noy off the street to the practice squad first, but they are so desperate he is now on the active roster. I do not expect Baltimore’s defense in its current state to be a problem for Cleveland’s offensive line.

· Browns LG Joel Bitonio has yet to concede a QB hit, and he will shut down interior defender Michael Pierce, whose 9 pressures rank 13th.

· Baltimore’s offense lost two wide receivers last week against the Colts, Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, but I expect those two to be worth just a point.

· The Ravens have more receiver depth than they’ve ever had with Lamar Jackson. Using WR Nelson Agholor and WR Zay Flowers with tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in 12 personnel will be equivalent to the talent Jackson has had in his receiving corps throughout his career. Jackson has a 65% success rate when targeting Andrews and Likely this year and I don’t believe having two tight ends on the field will hamper Baltimore’s offense much.

· Cleveland’s offense has surrendered more touchdowns than the Browns defense this season, but Jackson is the kind of quarterback to break down an elite defense with his unique talents. Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 14 rushing first downs this year and he’s averaging 0.36 EPA on designed runs.

· The Ravens are 12-2 against the spread as underdogs with Jackson and Cleveland applies to a 191-295-13 ATS situation.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 1.0 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points.