Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (36) – Atlanta (-2.5) vs TENNESSEE

· Ryan Tannehill will miss this game with a high-ankle sprain, and coach Mike Vrabel expects both backups Malik Willis and Will Levis to play on Sunday – although I expect rookie Levis get the majority of snaps under center. We rate Levis at 3.2 points worse than Tannehill, which is about the same as the market adjusted.

· This is a tough first NFL start for the second-round rookie quarterback as he is unlikely to get any support from his ground game. The Falcons’ defense is allowing a league-low -0.22 EPA/rush.

· Atlanta interior defenders David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett have combined for 35 pressures. Levis will not have clean pockets to operate in as 60.3% of Tennessee’s total pressures are the fault of the interior offensive line. Titans center Aaron Brewer ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· The Falcons offense leads the NFL in run play rate adjusted for situation, but they will be limited on the ground as Tennessee’s defense is conceding -0.14 EPA/rush (5th).

· The Titans’ scheme on defense is built to stop run-first offenses with a quarterback like Desmond Ridder. Tennessee’s defense uses an 85.8% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest) and a 29.6% man coverage rate (7th-highest). Ridder’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is just 81% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (27th) and his yards per attempt against man coverage is only 56% of his yards per attempt versus zone (31st).

· Atlanta RG Chris Lindstrom ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will contain interior defender Jeffery Simmons, whose 25 pressures rank 5th.

· Mike Vrabel is 5-0 ATS coming out of a bye week, and I believe he will muddy this game up with the extra prep and a backup quarterback.

· Our model favors the Falcons by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 34.5 points. The matchups favor the under enough to make Under 35 points or more a Strong Opinion.