Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (38) – TAMPA BAY (-2.5) vs Atlanta

· Atlanta’s pass play rate is 55.6% this season after it was 44.7% in Arthur Smith’s first year, but this is not by design. The Falcons have led for only 13% of their snaps on offense in these first 6 games, which has forced them to throw more than they’d like to.

· Smith will want to pound the rock as long as his team isn’t trailing by too much and Tampa Bay’s rush defense is in the middle of the pack according to our metrics.

· Atlanta tight ends Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith have combined for 70 targets already, but the pair will be limited in this game as the Buccaneers are conceding a 44% success rate to tight ends (7th).

· Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (7th) and they will contain RB Bijan Robinson, whose 189 receiving yards rank 2nd among running backs.

· Desmond Ridder will have to look downfield to Falcons WR Drake London, who gained 2.84 yards per route run and had two contested target receptions last week. However, the Buccaneers rank 7th in explosive pass rate allowed.

· Atlanta All-Pro RG Chris Lindstrom will shut down interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Falcons allowed 24 points last week, but it was due to short fields as they conceded just 3.9 yppl. Atlanta’s defense is allowing just a 40.1% success rate (5th) under new coordinator Ryan Neilsen.

· Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 9th in run rate adjusted for situation despite losing 0.20 points per run this year (29th). Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator Dave Canales will likely continue banging his head against the wall on Sunday as the Falcons defense leads the NFL in EPA/rush.

· Atlanta interior defenders David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett have combined for 28 pressures and Baker Mayfield will not have clean pockets as 64% of Tampa Bay’s pressures have been the fault of the interior offensive line (2nd-most).

· Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin has a 60.5% success rate (17th) but he will be limited by CB Jeff Okudah, who is conceding 0.50 yards per cover snap (2nd).

· Tampa Bay’s playoff odds would increase by about 30% with a win in this game compared to a loss and we make them a slight favorite to do so.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 34.2 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 37.5 points or higher.