Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (56.5) – NEW ENGLAND (-3/-3.5) vs Atlanta

The Falcons defense has played better than their mediocre 22 points per game allowed implies. Atlanta ranks 9th in opponent yards per play and they play even better in close games. In fact, the Falcons defense rank 1st in my metrics only considering plays when a team has a less than 80% in-game win probability. Still, it’s worth noting Atlanta’s defense has trouble playing with big leads, last week and the Super Bowl being prime examples. The Falcons pass defense ranks 5th but they will face a tough test against Tom Brady, who spearheads the league’s 2nd best passing offense.

The game’s biggest mismatch will be New England’s defense against the Falcons offense. The Patriots have surrendered more yards per play than any team in the league. I do think the Patriots’ defense is likely to improve but Atlanta’s offense ranks first in my numbers and should be able to score easily in this game, especially with a healthier Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.

The Falcons outgained the Dolphins 6.1 yppl to 4.5 yppl last week and my metrics show they should’ve won the game by a touchdown – in fact, Atlanta has outgained their opponents in yppl every game this season and are unlucky to be just 3-2. Teams that lose as a double-digit favorites are historically good bets the next week and Atlanta applies to a 94-49-6 ATS situation that is based on that premise. However, I don’t like going against the Patriots when the number is low given that Tom Brady is 113-59-7 ATS in his career when not favored by more than 7 points, including 2-0 ATS this season. That record is 43-12-4 ATS in regular season home games. I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Patriots

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.8 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 42.4%
Sack Rate 5.8% 6.4%
Int Rate 3.3% 1.0%
Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 16.1%
Big Pass Yards 36.1% 22.8%
NYPP 7.3 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.8 24.8
RB YPR 4.6 4.1
Stuff Rate 25.2% 23.2%
Succ Rush Plays 48.4% 46.4%
Big Rush Yards 47.9% 33.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.3

Game

All Snaps 61.6 64.8
Early Down Succ 51.3% 45.7%
Succ Rate 49.2% 43.7%
Big Yards Rate 41.1% 27.7%
Yards Per Play 6.2 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 28.2
Run Ratio 41.8% 38.7%
Starting Field Pos 23.9 26.4
Game Control 5.4 -5.4

Points 24.2 21.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	23 – 17 W	2.5	50.0% / 31.8%	6.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.0	32.0% / 52.6%	24.0% / 15.8%	2.6 / 6.6	57 / 63	45.2% / 37.5%	42.1% / 38.1%	49.7% / 31.2%	6.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 30.2%	18.3 / 28.1
2	GB	34 – 23 W	12.4	51.6% / 50.9%	9.7% / 5.7%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.2 / 5.8	55.6% / 56.3%	18.5% / 25.0%	5.2 / 3.8	58 / 69	55.3% / 53.8%	53.4% / 52.2%	50.0% / 24.2%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 23.2%	26.7 / 22.1
3	@DET	30 – 26 W	6.3	48.6% / 40.4%	5.4% / 4.3%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.4	48.3% / 31.6%	13.8% / 26.3%	5.2 / 3.7	66 / 66	50.9% / 41.5%	48.5% / 37.9%	34.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 28.8%	27.8 / 29.7
4	BUF	17 – 23 L	-2.0	48.8% / 43.5%	2.3% / 13.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.1	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 23.7%	5.1 / 3.1	72 / 61	56.1% / 47.7%	52.8% / 44.3%	30.9% / 27.6%	5.4 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 62.3%	25.9 / 21.9
6	MIA	17 – 20 L	7.7	50.0% / 45.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	2.9% / 3.0%	6.6 / 4.6	47.4% / 46.9%	42.1% / 25.0%	5.3 / 4.3	55 / 65	48.8% / 47.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	40.1% / 23.8%	6.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 49.2%	20.7 / 30.2

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	27 – 42 L	1.8	33.3% / 60.5%	7.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	50.0% / 42.4%	25.0% / 9.1%	3.5 / 5.7	75 / 71	46.4% / 63.5%	41.3% / 52.1%	54.8% / 53.7%	5.0 / 7.6	0.0% / 1.4%	48.0% / 46.5%	27.8 / 25.5
2	@NO	36 – 20 W	14.2	61.0% / 51.1%	4.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.6 / 7.7	51.6% / 47.1%	22.6% / 11.8%	3.8 / 4.8	72 / 62	58.3% / 54.2%	56.9% / 50.0%	53.2% / 48.3%	7.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.4%	27.5 / 27.9
3	HOU	36 – 33 W	1.2	47.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.4 / 8.3	45.0% / 56.3%	30.0% / 15.6%	3.0 / 3.9	60 / 67	46.8% / 54.7%	46.7% / 52.2%	52.3% / 38.8%	6.6 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.8%	28.8 / 24.0
4	CAR	30 – 33 L	-1.9	60.4% / 61.3%	6.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 9.8	73.7% / 51.7%	21.1% / 20.7%	4.2 / 4.8	67 / 60	66.7% / 54.9%	64.2% / 56.7%	22.0% / 48.0%	5.6 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	28.4% / 48.3%	26.1 / 26.7
5	@TB	19 – 14 W	4.4	51.2% / 48.9%	7.0% / 4.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.8	47.8% / 55.0%	17.4% / 20.0%	4.9 / 4.5	66 / 67	53.7% / 55.6%	50.0% / 50.7%	24.6% / 37.2%	6.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	34.8% / 29.9%	27.7 / 27.4
6	@NYJ	24 – 17 W	-0.1	39.5% / 54.0%	0.0% / 8.0%	2.6% / 4.3%	6.8 / 6.7	61.5% / 40.0%	7.7% / 24.0%	4.6 / 3.0	64 / 75	49.0% / 50.9%	48.4% / 49.3%	29.5% / 46.0%	5.9 / 5.5	1.6% / 1.3%	40.6% / 33.3%	28.7 / 24.0

Atlanta Falcons @

New England Patriots

Sun, Oct 22

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis