Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (-3) over Atlanta

· The Falcons are leading the NFL in run play rate adjusted for situation, but the ground game will be shut down by a Bears defense conceding just a 34.3% rush success rate (3rd) and Taylor Heinicke won’t be able to throw downfield on Chicago’s defense either.

· Atlanta TE Jonnu Smith is averaging 1.72 yards per route run (5th) and TE Kyle Pitts is averaging 0.29 EPA/target (7th). The Falcons are targeting tight ends on a league-high 35.4% of passes but the Bears are conceding just a 45% success rate to tight ends (3rd).

· Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson is conceding a league-low 0.38 yards per cover snap, and he will shut down WR Drake London, who has a 57% success rate (16th).

· Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has a 42% receiving success rate (5th) and screens will be the only aspect of Atlanta’s offense clicking as the Bears defense is surrendering a league-high 0.18 EPA/target to running backs.

· Chicago’s offense has a 41.6% rush success rate (8th) but they will be contained on the ground as the Falcons are allowing a league-low -0.22 EPA/rush.

· Bears TE Cole Kmet has a 60% success rate (5th) but he will likely be sidelined. Kmet is worth 0.8 points to Chicago’s offense by our numbers.

· Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell is conceding 0.78 yards per cover snap (11th) and he will limit deep passing from Justin Fields to wide receiver DJ Moore, who has 13 receptions with 20+ air yards (3rd).

· The Bears are 22-13-1 ATS at home from week 10 onward against dome or warm weather teams since 2005. The temperature in Chicago will be in the mid-30s on Sunday, which is not ideal for the Falcons.

· Our model favors the Bears by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 37.6 points, and Atlanta applies to a negative 127-207-19 ATS road letdown situation.