Game Analysis

Note: The Under was released at 35 early in the week but is now down to 32 and out of range.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (35) – Atlanta (-3) vs CAROLINA

· Desmond Ridder had a season-high 347 passing yards last week in the dome, and 50% of them were to Atlanta WR Drake London, but they will not be able to replicate in the rain this week.

· Carolina’s defense is allowing -0.20 EPA/dropback in the last two games (6th) with Jaycee Horn back on the field after the starting cornerback missed 10 games after surgery for a hamstring injury. Horn is conceding 2.2 yards per target fewer than backup cornerback CJ Henderson and he will limit London.

· The Falcons are targeting running backs on 22.6% of passes (8th-most) but the screens will be contained by a Panthers defense allowing -0.38 EPA/target to running backs (2nd).

· Atlanta’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but they will likely be without two starting tackles. RT Kaleb McGary has conceded 14 pressures (4th-fewest) and LT Jake Matthews has allowed only 22 pressures (17th-fewest).

· Falcons head coach Arthur Smith will not trust his backup tackles or turnover-prone Ridder in wet conditions, and he will slow this game to a crawl with the ground game. Atlanta’s offense has the highest run rate adjusted for the situation in the NFL and Carolina’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.07 EPA/rush.

· However, the backup offensive linemen also affect the run game as the Falcons gained 0.5 yards per rush fewer than their season average last week.

· Panthers WR Adam Thielen has a 60% success rate (5th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from Dee Alford, who is allowing 1.51 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 25th out of 28 qualifying nickelbacks.

· However, Bryce Young’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is only 86% his yards per attempt against the blitz (27th) and he might not be able to get the ball to Thielen against a full complement of coverage defenders. Atlanta’s defense has a 76.3% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest).

· Falcons DT David Onyemata missed the last game, but he will likely suit up this week and wreak havoc as a league-high 65% of Carolina’s pressures surrendered this season have been charged to the interior offensive line.

· The Panthers are the only offense in the NFL with a higher rushing success rate than dropback success rate and I could see them not asking too much of their rookie quarterback in the rain by also running the ball a lot. That strategy would be unlikely to work, however, as Atlanta’s defense is allowing -0.20 EPA/rush (2nd).

· Our model favors the Falcons by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of just 26.8 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 34 points or more.