Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (+2.5) over Atlanta

· Cardinals fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune averaged only 0.6 yppp last week in Cleveland making the bridge start after they traded Joshua Dobbs before the deadline, but Kyler Murray will be on the field against the Falcons for his first game since tearing his ACL late last year.

· Arizona’s offense is 2nd in run-play rate above expectation based on the situation but Atlanta’s defense is conceding a league-low -0.23 EPA/rush and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing would be wise to let Murray air it out.

· The Cardinals will also have RB James Conner back in uniform and he has the highest PFF pass-blocking grade among running backs this season.

· Arizona’s offense will be without left tackle DJ Humphries, but they will be more concerned about pressure up the middle as 58% of offensive line pressures have been at fault of the interior (7th-most) and Falcons DT David Onyemata ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency.

· The Cardinals have averaged 24.5 points per game with Kyler Murray all-time. Murray might not be operating at full capacity from a scrambling standpoint in his first game back from the ACL, but I expect him to be pretty close to 100% considering they had no incentive to rush him back as they are in line for a top draft pick. Arizona’s offense should be around average with Murray under center which will be a great improvement as they currently sit at 16.8 points per game (28th).

· Atlanta’s offense is targeting tight ends on a league-high 35.5% of passes but the Cardinals are relatively strong defending tight ends conceding a 51% success rate (12th).

· Falcons TE Kyle Pitts has 27 slot targets ranking 5th-most among tight ends, but he will be limited on the inside by nickelback Jalen Thompson, who is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).

· There will likely be plenty of Taylor Heinicke handoffs as Atlanta’s offense ranks 4th in run play percentage above expectation and Arizona’s defense is surrendering a 44.4% rush success rate (29th).

· Our model favors the Cardinals by 2.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.4 points, and Arizona applies to a 130-50-6 ATS situation that plays on bad teams after losing by a big margin.

Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at pick or better.