Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+2) over Arizona

The 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but it will be the Cardinals with a new man under center on Sunday. My quarterback model projects Drew Stanton to be about 3.5 points worse per game than Carson Palmer and he certainly didn’t look good in limited action last week gaining just 3.8 yppp. Arizona’s passing offense ranks 23rd in my metrics this season and should be even worse sith Stanton pulling the trigger.

This may be CJ Beathard’s last chance as he certainly hasn’t played well to this point. Beathard is gaining 4.6 yppp and the Niners have never taken a lead with him under center. Last season, Garoppolo threw for 7.4 yppp and it’s only a matter of time before he grasps enough of Kyle Shanahan’s offense to take over.

Beathard is certainly worse than Hoyer was but Arizona’s decline in quarterback production over their season numbers is more drastic. Our model gives San Francisco a good chance to get their first win of the season and I’ll lean with the Niners as long as they’re an underdog.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cardinals
49ers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.6 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 43.7%
Sack Rate 7.8% 4.5%
Int Rate 3.1% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 17.0%
Big Pass Yards 42.0% 34.5%
NYPP 6.6 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 21.9 29.7
RB YPR 2.7 3.3
Stuff Rate 27.1% 25.8%
Succ Rush Plays 33.0% 34.5%
Big Rush Yards 23.4% 45.3%
Yards Per Rush 2.7 3.5

Game

All Snaps 65.4 67.7
Early Down Succ 41.3% 38.4%
Succ Rate 39.3% 39.8%
Big Yards Rate 38.8% 38.3%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.8 28.8
Run Ratio 33.4% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 26.6 29.9
Game Control -2.7 2.7

Points 17.0 27.3

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	23 – 35 L	2.7	42.9% / 47.6%	2.0% / 2.4%	6.3% / 2.4%	5.4 / 6.8	38.9% / 35.7%	16.7% / 21.4%	2.5 / 3.0	67 / 70	41.2% / 42.3%	41.8% / 42.9%	29.4% / 27.4%	4.6 / 5.3	1.5% / 0.0%	26.9% / 40.0%	28.5 / 36.6
2	@IND	16 – 13 W	-6.3	40.0% / 41.5%	10.0% / 9.8%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.7 / 4.6	34.6% / 34.5%	11.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 2.6	66 / 70	39.6% / 36.5%	37.9% / 38.6%	63.6% / 16.5%	5.9 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 41.4%	29.6 / 24.5
3	DAL	17 – 28 L	0.5	38.9% / 42.1%	11.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	2.3 / 3.7	75 / 46	35.7% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	51.5% / 62.8%	4.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	28.0% / 58.7%	21.6 / 29.4
4	SF	18 – 15 W	-1.4	49.1% / 30.8%	10.5% / 5.8%	2.0% / 2.0%	5.6 / 4.0	39.1% / 37.0%	30.4% / 25.9%	2.3 / 3.5	80 / 79	51.6% / 33.9%	46.3% / 32.9%	17.9% / 27.9%	4.6 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 34.2%	27.9 / 22.3
5	@PHI	7 – 34 L	-16.7	41.3% / 48.4%	4.3% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	6.0 / 9.6	21.4% / 28.6%	35.7% / 22.9%	2.2 / 3.5	60 / 66	37.2% / 33.3%	36.7% / 37.9%	20.2% / 52.3%	5.1 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	23.3% / 53.0%	19.3 / 34.1
6	TB	38 – 33 W	18.1	62.5% / 53.5%	8.3% / 2.3%	4.5% / 4.8%	11.3 / 8.0	38.5% / 23.8%	20.5% / 38.1%	4.2 / 3.2	63 / 64	56.5% / 40.4%	47.6% / 43.8%	53.0% / 51.9%	6.9 / 6.5	1.6% / 0.0%	61.9% / 32.8%	33.4 / 28.3
7	@LA	0 – 33 L	-16.0	28.6% / 42.1%	8.6% / 2.6%	6.3% / 2.7%	4.8 / 6.0	25.0% / 48.8%	41.7% / 14.6%	2.1 / 4.8	47 / 79	27.3% / 39.7%	27.7% / 45.6%	35.8% / 29.1%	4.1 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	25.5% / 51.9%	26.0 / 33.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CAR	3 – 23 L	-12.4	46.2% / 45.8%	10.3% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.2%	4.3 / 7.1	26.7% / 39.0%	26.7% / 14.6%	3.4 / 2.9	54 / 65	48.7% / 42.6%	40.7% / 41.5%	33.6% / 29.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.9% / 1.5%	27.8% / 63.1%	30.1 / 33.7
2	@SEA	9 – 12 L	-2.0	20.7% / 33.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	3.7% / 0.0%	3.1 / 4.3	52.6% / 37.2%	21.1% / 20.9%	8.4 / 3.1	48 / 85	38.9% / 37.5%	33.3% / 35.3%	49.2% / 23.7%	5.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.6% / 50.6%	24.5 / 23.9
3	LA	39 – 41 L	-8.5	46.3% / 64.3%	9.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.4	51.5% / 51.5%	27.3% / 30.3%	3.4 / 3.8	74 / 61	47.2% / 57.4%	48.6% / 57.4%	50.8% / 55.4%	5.7 / 6.9	1.4% / 3.3%	44.6% / 54.1%	36.1 / 36.1
4	@ARI	15 – 18 L	1.4	30.8% / 49.1%	5.8% / 10.5%	2.0% / 2.0%	4.0 / 5.6	37.0% / 39.1%	25.9% / 30.4%	3.5 / 2.3	79 / 80	33.9% / 51.6%	32.9% / 46.3%	27.9% / 17.9%	3.9 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	34.2% / 28.8%	22.3 / 27.9
5	@IND	23 – 26 L	-3.3	50.0% / 44.7%	4.2% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.0 / 7.6	31.8% / 32.4%	31.8% / 32.4%	3.0 / 4.4	70 / 75	46.3% / 38.2%	44.3% / 38.7%	37.3% / 58.1%	5.7 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	31.4% / 49.3%	17.5 / 28.8
6	@WAS	24 – 26 L	-7.0	30.0% / 60.5%	6.0% / 2.6%	2.1% / 2.7%	5.0 / 8.6	65.0% / 38.2%	25.0% / 29.4%	4.3 / 2.8	70 / 72	41.2% / 51.8%	40.0% / 50.0%	50.4% / 43.6%	4.8 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.4%	28.6% / 47.2%	32.6 / 26.9
7	DAL	10 – 40 L	-20.1	39.5% / 51.9%	11.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 8.7	59.1% / 68.9%	27.3% / 11.1%	4.7 / 5.9	65 / 72	48.0% / 66.7%	46.2% / 62.5%	40.7% / 57.0%	4.5 / 7.0	4.6% / 0.0%	33.8% / 62.5%	23.0 / 34.1
8	@PHI	10 – 33 L	-11.9	32.5% / 42.9%	10.0% / 8.6%	5.6% / 3.1%	3.6 / 5.5	41.7% / 39.4%	41.7% / 27.3%	3.9 / 3.5	64 / 68	40.8% / 46.9%	35.9% / 41.2%	38.2% / 44.4%	3.7 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 48.5%	28.5 / 29.0

Arizona Cardinals @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Nov 5

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis