Game Analysis

PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs Arizona

· Pittsburgh’s offense averaged 0.06 EPA/play against the Bengals, which ranked 9th among week 12 offenses, in their first game without Matt Canada calling the plays.

· The most notable change was finally using the middle of the field in the passing game. Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had a 48% target rate on his routes. Freiermuth had 7 of his targets versus two-high coverage and he will be thrown to in the seams again as Arizona’s defense has a 63% two-high coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· Kenny Pickett had 21.6% of his dropbacks with play-action last game compared to 15.3% in the first 11 weeks.

· We’ll be looking for Pittsburgh to increase the workload for RB Jaylen Warren on Sunday as a next step for this offense. Warren is averaging 1.61 yards per route run (5th) and the Cardinals are surrendering a 50% pass success rate to running backs (30th). Furthermore, Arizona’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/rush allowed.

· There might be some hidden improvements for Pittsburgh’s offense outside of changing play-callers to Mike Sullivan. The Steelers are averaging 0.08 EPA/rush (4th) and rank 8th in pass-blocking efficiency since rookie RT Broderick Jones was inserted into the lineup.

· Kyler Murray has only a 1.5% PFF turnover-worthy play rate this season while also attacking downfield.

· Murray is averaging a career-high 9.4 air yards per attempt. Murray had never had an average depth of target above 8 yards prior to this year. Pittsburgh’s defense will likely have All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in uniform for his first game since October to contain Murray’s deep passing.

· Fitzpatrick will also play a role in shutting down Cardinals TE Trey McBride, who is averaging 2.07 yards per route run (3rd). The Steelers are conceding just a 45% success rate to tight ends (5th).

· Arizona WR Marquise Brown has 21 deep targets (6th-most) but he will be limited by CB Joey Porter, who conceded only 2 targets in shadow coverage of Cincinnati Pro Bowl WR Ja’Marr Chase last week with an average separation of 0.9 yards.

· Pittsburgh edge rusher TJ Watt has 58 pressures (6th) and he will wreak havoc across from rookie RT Paris Johnson, who surrendered a league-high 2 sacks last week.

· Pittsburgh is at their best when coming off a loss, against good teams and versus division rivals. However, the Steelers are just 9-31-1 ATS under Mike Tomlin off a win and facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .400 or less.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 41.8 points. I used Arizona in my spread pool based on Pittsburgh’s history of letting down against weaker non-division teams.