Game Analysis

Lean – Over (48) – PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) vs Arizona

· The Eagles struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks – allowing a league-high 0.41 EPA/rush. Kyler Murray should have plenty of space to break containment on the ground if he is able to recover fully from his illness.

· Murray’s prospects as a passer are not as bright. Murray’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is only 63% of his yards per attempt against the blitz this year and Philadelphia’s defense has a 77.1% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).

· Cardinals WR Marquise Brown is likely out and Murray will look in the seams to TE Trey McBride, who is averaging 2.14 yards per route run (2nd). The Eagles are surrendering 0.30 EPA/target to tight ends (25th).

· I expect Philadelphia’s offense to bully Arizona as a large home favorite. The Eagles have a 44.7% rush success rate (4th) and the Cardinals’ defense ranks 29th in EPA/rush allowed.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 9.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 50.0 points, but Philly applies to a 71-28-3 ATS double-digit home favorite situation while Arizona applies to a 10-45-2 ATS late-season double-digit underdog on a losing streak angle. I used Philly in my spread pool.