Game Analysis
Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) over Arizona
The Jaguars signed cornerback Nevin Lawson this week, which could be an indication they do not expect to have either CB CJ Henderson (groin) or CB Tre Herndon (knee) in uniform on Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins may get to work across from backup CB Tyson Campbell, who is surrendering more than 2 yards per cover snap. Kyler Murray is averaging 8.9 yards per pass play and should be able to take advantage of a depleted secondary.
Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson are the only two quarterbacks averaging 10 air yards per attempt. Lawrence has had mixed success with his deep passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Jacksonville’s ground game is 2 points better than average according to our numbers and the Cardinals rush defense ranks 31st. Jags’ RB James Robinson has forced 8 missed tackles on just 22 touches and the Jaguars would be wise to get him more involved on Sunday to slow the game down since they are heavy underdogs.
Our model makes Arizona a 4.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 50.6 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.5
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.8%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
8.7%
-
Int Rate
4.3%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
8.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
54.8%
22.1%
-
NYPP
9.4
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.5
24.5
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
20.5%
34.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
59.9%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
22.7%
54.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
5.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
56.4%
54.0%
-
Succ Rate
53.5%
47.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.1%
34.0%
-
Yards Per Play
7.4
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.0
26.5
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
39.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
5.9
-5.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.0
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.4%
53.6%
-
Sack Rate
2.4%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
6.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
29.9%
22.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.6%
47.2%
-
NYPP
4.9
8.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
16.0
35.5
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
18.8%
26.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
56.3%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.6%
28.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
71.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
53.9%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
50.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.6%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
23.6
31.5
-
Run Ratio
27.8%
49.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-8.9
8.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TEN |
38 – 13 W |
15.6 |
41.2% /
42.9% |
5.9% /
14.3% |
3.1% /
2.8% |
8.5 /
5.2 |
53.1% /
45.5% |
21.9% /
36.4% |
4.0 /
3.9 |
66 /
64 |
46.2% /
50.0% |
47.0% /
43.8% |
47.4% /
24.3% |
6.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
48.5% /
34.4% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
MIN |
34 – 33 W |
-3.7 |
56.4% /
51.5% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.4 |
66.7% /
51.9% |
19.0% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.6 |
60 /
60 |
66.7% /
58.0% |
60.0% /
51.7% |
44.9% /
43.7% |
8.4 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.0% /
45.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.4 |
38.5% /
55.9% |
1.9% /
2.9% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
8.6 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
19.5% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
68 /
75 |
47.3% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
52.0% |
38.7% /
46.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
54.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.4 |
32.4% /
51.4% |
2.9% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
8.9 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
18.8% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
3.2 |
50 /
67 |
36.8% /
56.9% |
38.0% /
49.3% |
42.5% /
34.9% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
44.8% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Arizona Cardinals
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars