College Football Rotation

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Rice (-2.5)  22   CHARLOTTE  19

Rice’s run-heavy offense (77% run plays) doesn’t match up well against a Charlotte defense that’s pretty solid defending the run but has been dreadfully bad defending the pass (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense).

The Charlotte offense struggled in their first two games but busted out last week with 42 points on 576 yards at 8.1 yppl against FCS team Monmouth, who would allow 7.8 yppl to an average FBS team. The 49ers are still 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively, which is exactly what I had them rated before the season started, but Rice has been better than expected defensively so far this season (just 0.1 yppl worse than average).

My ratings favor Charlotte by 1 point, with 41 total points (even with the nearly perfect weather conditions), which has a lot to do with Rice not being able to take advantage of Charlotte’s horrible pass defense. However, the 49ers apply to a 9-50-2 ATS situation. I’ll pass.

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1-Star Best Bet – *Oklahoma State Team Total Under (31.5 -110)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Tulsa (+10) at +10 or more

Oklahoma State’s defense received the negative headlines after their 3-69 loss at Oregon two weeks ago, but the offense has been much worse through two games and that unit isn’t likely to score 30-plus points against a vastly improved Tulsa defense.

The Cowboys’ starting quarterback Hauss Hejny was injured after completing just 5 of 10 passes against FCS team UT Martin in week 1 and backup Zane Flores has managed just 4.2 yards per pass play on 43 pass plays in his place. Oklahoma State has lacked quarterback depth in recent years, as the backup quarterbacks combined to average only 5.4 yards on 348 pass plays the last 3 seasons. Flores obviously wasn’t good against Oregon (2.7 yppp) but averaging only 5.7 yppp against UT Martin is just as bad. The Cowboys aren’t running the ball well either, as they’ve averaged only 3.6 yards per rushing play, including just 3.5 yprp against UTM. The Pokes managed just 5.0 yards per play and 27 points against UT Martin, whose defense gave up an average of 39.5 points and 7.9 yppl to UTEP and FCS team Southern Illinois the last two weeks.

Tulsa’s defense was the second worst among FBS teams last season based on compensated yards per play allowed, but their new defensive coordinator has a history of instant improvement. DC Josh Reardon took over the Gardner-Webb defense in 2020 and improved that unit by 1.3 yards per play. In Reardon’s final season at GW (2023) his defense rated at just 0.2 yppl worse than an average FBS defense. Reardon moved on to East Tennessee State last season and not only did Gardner-Webb’s defense get worse by 1.4 yppl without him but ETSU’s defense improved by 1.3 yppl from their 2023 unit and that defense rated at just 0.1 yppl worse than an average FBS defense. Through 3 games as the DC at Tulsa the Golden Hurricane defense has given up just 5.0 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.

I see value on Tulsa and the Under but that’s because Oklahoma State’s offense is projected to score well below expectations against an underrated Golden Hurricane defense. The Cowboys have gone under their team total in 9 of their last 11 games while topping 28 points just twice during that span.

1-Star Best Bet on Oklahoma State’s Team Total Under 31 points or more or Under 31.5 to -125 odds.

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Tulsa at +10 or more.

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RUTGERS (+2)  22   Iowa  21

This game is weakness against weakness, as the pathetic Iowa offense (just 5.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppl to an average attack) is matched up against a horrible Rutgers’ defense that’s surrendered 7.6 yppl in games against FBS teams Ohio and Miami-Ohio, who would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.

Hard to say who will win that balloon fight but a good Iowa defense is better than a good Rutgers’ offense.

My ratings favor Iowa by 3.2 points but Rutgers applies to a 64-16-1 ATS home underdog situation, which has me siding with the home team.

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North Texas (-1.5)  26   ARMY  22

The North Texas defense has been very good defending the run (3.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and very good overall at just 3.9 yppl allowed. Ff that success translates into defending an option offense well then the Mean Green should win this game. My ratings favor North Texas by 1.5 points, so the line is fair, but the Eagles apply to a 104-47-3 ATS week 4 situation.

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TCU (-6.5)  35   Southern Methodist  28

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Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5)  27   EASTERN MICHIGAN  24

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GEORGIA TECH (-24)  38   Temple  14

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Lean – UCF (-7)  26   North Carolina  15

My ratings favor UCF by 7 points in a lower than expected scoring game (aided by -1.4 points in weather adjustment) but I’ll lean with the Golden Knights on the basis of a 104-37 ATS situation.

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Lean – MIAMI-OHIO (+2.5)  26   Nevada-Las Vegas  23

UNLV is 3-0 but the teams that they’ve beaten (Idaho State, Sam Houston, and UCLA) are a combined 0-9 this season and the Rebels have only won the line of scrimmage in those games by an average of +3.7 points while being outgained by 5 yards per game.

Dan Mullen’s offense looks good but UNLV has allowed 6.0 yppl to 3 bad offensive teams and Miami-Ohio is decent enough offensively to take advantage, as evidenced by the 8.4 yards per play they gained last week against a bad Rutgers defense. Miami has a stout defense that should be able to slow down the Rebels’ potent attack at home.

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Brigham Young (-6.5)  27   EAST CAROLINA  20

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LOUISVILLE (-26.5)  40   Bowling Green  11

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CLEMSON (-17)  35   Syracuse  18

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Lean – INDIANA (-6.5)  30   Illinois  19

Illinois was outgained by Duke but pulled away due to a +5 turnover margin (including 4 Duke fumbles) and Indiana’s 13-point win over Old Dominion doesn’t look so bad after ODU just whipped Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

Curt Cignetti’s teams have been consistently underrated and his teams are 67.5% ATS in his career at the FBS level, including 12-4 ATS as the head coach at Indiana. My preseason ratings favored Indiana by 9 points in this game and season to date numbers also favor the Hoosiers by 9 points. I’ll add couple based on a very good 113-55-4 ATS situation.

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DUKE (-3)  33   NC State  30

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FLORIDA STATE (-45)  48   Kent State  3

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Lean – Toledo (-14)  32   WESTERN MICHIGAN  13

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BUFFALO (-5.5)  23   Troy  20

Troy’s backup quarterback was dreadful last week but he was good in his one start last season (6.6 yards per pass play against Texas State). I did dock the Troy offense what amounts to 6 points but I think the value is still with the Trojans plus the points.

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WISCONSIN (-10)  24   Maryland  17

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SOUTH ALABAMA (-15.5)  34   Coastal Carolina  16

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TENNESSEE (-39)  58   Alabama-Birmingham  16

Tennessee would be a Lean at -38 or less.

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Texas-San Antonio (-4.5)  30   COLORADO STATE  28

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Lean – Wyoming (+13)  20   COLORADO  28

Colorado has slipped back to mediocrity on offense, as expected, but the Buffaloes’ pass defense has gone from good to horrendous this season without All-American CB Travis Hunter and S Shilo Sanders. The Buffs have allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to a trio of teams that would combine to average only 5.9 yppp against an average defense. Wyoming quarterback Kaden Anderson is capable enough to have some success against that secondary and the Cowboys’ defense has been very stingy so far this season – allowing just 12.7 points per game and 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. I like Wyoming plus the points.

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UTAH (-3.5)  28   Texas Tech  25

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OREGON (-33.5)  45   Oregon State  11

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MISSISSIPPI (-12)  38   Tulane  25

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Lean – KANSAS (-12.5)  35   West Virginia  18

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BAYLOR (-2.5)  30   Arizona State  27

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CONNECTICUT (-21)  38   Ball State  17

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1-Star Best Bet – *Arkansas (-6.5 -115)  35   MEMPHIS  22

Coming into the season I was about a point higher than the market on Arkansas and 2.3 points below the market with my rating on Memphis. Thus far, Arkansas has played better than I had projected, and Memphis has been about where I had them rated.

Last season, Memphis had a mediocre offense, as their 6.3 yards per play was against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS attack, and their defense allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense (although I had them rated as average after adjusting for the outlier against Navy in which they gave up 10.1 yards per play). I didn’t see the offense being any better with former Nevada starter Brendon Lewis taking over for 4-year starter Seth Henigan and their defense projected to be worse after losing basically everyone (just 1 of their top 21 tacklers returned) and rating at #80 on defensive talent.

Thus far, the Tigers’ offense has been 0.1 yppl better than average (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average team) and their defense, while better than I had projected, isn’t as good as they appear to be. The Tigers have only allowed 11 points per game thus far, but given up 5.1 yppl to Chattanooga and Georgia State in their first two games rated at 0.4 yppl worse than average and it’s hard to judge last week’s performance against Troy, in which Troy’s starting quarterback was injured early and the backup managed just 30 yards on 33 pass plays in his place. I have to give some credit to the Memphis defense, but it was apparent that Troy’s backup wasn’t prepared to play. Memphis’ median defensive performance has been 0.1 yppl worse than average, which may be the best way to rate them at this point. That’s still better than I had that unit projected but overall, I still view the Tigers as an average FBS team.

I expected the Arkansas offense to be about as good as they were last season (0.8 yppl better than average) but thus far the Razorbacks’ attack has exceeded expectations with an average of 558 yards at 8.3 yppl (excluding garbage time) against teams that would allow 6.4yppl to an average FBS attack. Their first two games were against bad defensive teams but gaining 522 yards at 7.4 yppl last week on the road at Ole Miss is an indication that their elite numbers after 3 games may be what we can expect going forward from 2nd year OC Bobby Petrino’s offense – and I have that unit now rated at 1.4 yppl better than average. The biggest improvement is in the accuracy of veteran quarterback Taylen Green, who has connected on 68.5% of his passes this season after completing just 60.4% of his throws in 2024. The 63% completion rate against a good Mississippi defense last week (and 8.7 yards per pass play) was very impressive and an indication that Green is indeed improved in the 2nd year of the system.

The Arkansas defense gave up 7.1 yppl to the Rebels last week (but they still outgained Ole Miss) but that’s actually not a horrible performance against a team that would have averaged 7.5 yppl at home against an average FBS team last season and projects to average 7.1 yppl at home against an average team this season. So it was an average defensive performance last week after two dominating defensive performances to start the season. I had Arkansas rated at 0.6 yppl better than average defensive heading into the season and thus far they’ve been 0.7 yppl better than average on that side of the ball.

Coming into this season my ratings would have favored Arkansas by 10.5 points in this game, and I’ve seen nothing so far from these teams that would make it any lower than that. Arkansas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 -115 odds or better.

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NEBRASKA (+1.5)  25   Michigan  24

I expected Nebraska to be better this season in coach Matt Rhule’s third season as head coach, as his third season at Temple and at Baylor resulted in significant improvements. Thus far the jury is still out, as beating up on Akron and Houston Christian the last two weeks doesn’t detract from the less than impressive 20-17 win over Cincinnati to open the season.

However, Michigan hasn’t proven anything either, as they were handled pretty easy by Oklahoma, getting outgained by 131 yards in that 13-24 loss. Beating New Mexico by just 17 points and blowing out a bad Central Michigan team doesn’t tell us much about the Wolverines but this game will tell us a lot more about both teams.

My ratings favor Michigan by 3 points but Nebraska applies to a very good 107-43-3 ATS situation and Matt Rhule’s teams are 68-41-1 ATS in his college coaching career.

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NOTRE DAME (-25)  38   Purdue  13

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VIRGINIA (-16)  35   Stanford  18

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MISSOURI (-10)  30   South Carolina  17

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MISSISSIPPI STATE (-23.5)  36   Northern Illinois  10

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Fresno State (-3)  24   HAWAII  22

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Lean – James Madison (-8.5)  27   LIBERTY  14

Lean – Under (47)

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Lean – KENNESAW STATE (+4.5)  29   Arkansas State  29

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Lean – FIU (-4.5)  29   Delaware  19

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Lean – Over (53.5) – Nevada (+9.5)  27   WESTERN KENTUCKY  34

Nevada has only scored an average of 14.7 points but the Wolf Pack have averaged a decent 5.4 yppl (excluding garbage time against Penn State) and they averaged 6.2 yppl subpar defensive teams Sacramento State and Middle Tennessee (who would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team).

Nevada should move the ball well again this week versus a horrible Western Kentucky defense that’s give up 7.1 yppl in their two games against FBS teams (Sam Houston and Toledo) – neither of which is particularly good offensively.

The Hilltoppers run their offense at a fast pace and they’ve averaged 455 yards per game, but their 6.1 yppl isn’t impressive when considering that they’ve faced 3 teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average attack.

Nevada has been 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively, so Western Kentucky should rack up plenty of yards again – but I think Nevada can keep it relatively close against the Hilltoppers’ porous defense.

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Boise State (-11)  32   AIR FORCE  21

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Lean – Under (47.5) – Marshall (-2.5)  21   MID TENNESSEE ST  19

I expected Marshall to struggle offensively with a brand new cast of players and a new coaching staff, but the Thundering Herd have bee worse than expected – averaging just 4.4 yppl (excluding garbage time vs Georgia) while facing teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team.

I expected Middle Tennessee State to be worse offensively too without star pass catchers WR Omari Kelly (10.2 yards per target on 85 targets in 2024) and TE Holden Willis, who averaged 10.2 yards on his 85 targets last season. The rest of the receivers and tight ends combined for just 6.5 YPT and this year’s receiving corps has averaged only 5.5 YPT on 84 targets through 3 games despite having Nicholas Vattiato back at quarterback.

Both defenses are worse than average but not nearly as bad as projected prior to the season and each unit has a significant advantage over the opposing offense in this game.

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LOUISIANA TECH (-3)  27   Southern Miss  24

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Lean – Under (52) – Washington (-21)  33   WASHINGTON STATE  12

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VANDERBILT (-28)  40   Georgia State  12

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TEXAS (-39.5)  44   Sam Houston State  7

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UTEP (-6.5)  27   UL Monroe  20

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California (-14)  28   SAN DIEGO STATE  14