Game Analysis

Southern Cal (-4)  30   BYU  28

I played BYU over 6.5 wins this season and I figured I’d get one upset among these first 4 games in which they’d be an underdog. That upset came last week in overtime at Tennessee and we could see another one here. I actually thought USC was an underrated team heading into the season and I nearly played the Trojans over as well – and thus far they’ve been even better than expected.

USC’s offensive switch to the Air Raid spread pass attack suits them really well given how athletically talented their offensive skill players are and how much depth the Trojans have at the receiver position, but I’m still surprised at just how good that offense has been. USC has averaged 38 points and 7.1 yards per play against two solid defensive teams in Fresno State and Stanford and the season-ending injury to starting quarterback JT Daniels could end up being a blessing in disguise given how well freshman Kedon Slovis played last week. Slovis has now completed 34 of 41 passes for 434 yards with just one sack taken (10.2 yards per pass play).

BYU has performed about as I expected so far this season but USC is better than I envisioned so far and my ratings actually favor the Trojans by 6 points in this game. However, BYU applies to a 142-49-5 ATS home underdog situation that will have me leaning the Cougars way and hoping they can pull off another upset win to aid my season win total play.