College Basketball

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2024-25 College Plays: 873-743-16 (505-446-8 Best Bets, 368-297-8 Opinions) – Daily and Season Recap below.

2023-24 College Basketball Plays: 544-459-16 

2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 590-482-17

College Basketball Best Bets: 2497-2096-74 on a Star Basis for +183.2 Stars the last 8 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+471.0 Stars the last 27 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first five seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1614-1350-42, 54.5%) despite being an unlucky 14-34-3 on games decided by overtime (instead of 33-15-3 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 47.7% of the close games (225-247-42 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 55.5% winners the last five seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last three seasons (+88.95 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.

We also release Opinions, which are recommended to be played at 0.5 Stars each, and Opinions are now 1272-1069-36 (54.3%) for +96.1 Stars over the previous five seasons.

Five Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 1614-1350-42 (54.5%) and Opinions are 1272-1069-36 (54.3%).

See season to date results below in the daily recap section.

2024-25 Season Recap

The NCAA Tournament/NIT/CBI/Crown Best Bets were 19-9, the Opinions were 15-7-1, and Leans were 8-6.

For the season the Best Bets are 505-446-8 for +11.7 Stars and the Opinions are 368-297-8 (+20.65 Stars with each Opinion at 0.5 Stars). A profit of +32.35 Stars is decent but we’d have been +52.1 Stars if not for horrible luck on games decided due to overtime.

It was a profitable season despite being an extremely unlucky 6-16-1 for -11.45 Stars on Best Bets decided due to overtime (instead of 16-6-1 for +9.4 Stars had those games been graded at the end of regulation), which is a swing of -20.85 Stars.

The Best Bets were just +11.7 Stars (and +21.15 Stars on Opinions) due to that horrible luck and we’d have been +32.55 Stars on Best Bets (and +53.2 Stars overall) with neutral luck (i.e. going 16-6-1 on those OT games instead of 6-16-1). The luck on Opinions has been even (even in OT decisions and barely under 50% in close decisions).

Best Bet Sides (295-267-8 for -2.65 Stars)

Best Bet Totals (100-89 for +3.2 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Sides (71-61 for +3.9 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (39-29 for +7.2 Stars)

Opinion Sides (234-197-5 for +8.65 Stars)

Opinion Totals (63-47 for +5.65 Stars)

Extra Game Opinion Sides (51-40-2 for +3.5 Stars)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (20-13 for +2.85 Stars)