Game Analysis

Note: This play was released last Friday and the total has gone down from 45.5 to 44.5 and is just a Lean Under at that number.

1-Unit UNDER (45.5) – Washington at PHILADELPHIA (-5)

Washington Preview

It was expected that Washington’s win-loss record would regress from their 2024 12-5 season, as that year the Commanders faced the easiest schedule in the league, were 4-1 in games decided by 3 points or less and had an unsustainably high 87% success rate converting on 4th downs. They were also relatively healthy in 2024. That was not the case in 2025, as their three offensive star – QB Jayden Daniels, WR Terry McLaurin, and LT Laremy Tunsil – all missed games. Daniels (played 7 games) and McLaurin (10 games) only played together in 2 full games all season and the offense went from very good to mediocre (18th in EPA per play, 10th in success rate). Tunsil is out to start the season and I value that loss at 0.8 points.

Daniels will have a quality second receiver to throw to with the addition of Stefon Diggs, who averaged 9.9 yards on 102 targets (catching 85) last season and has averaged 8.6 YPT for his career. I think Diggs is an upgrade over Deebo Samuel, who averaged a sub-par 7.3 YPT last season as the team’s most targeted player. Tunsil hasn’t recovered enough to start the season and he’s worth 0.8 points to the offense.

The offense, while not nearly as good, wasn’t really the issue. It was the defensive side of the ball that caused the collapse to 5-12. The 2024 defense was below average after taking schedule into account, but last season’s unit was dreadful. The Commanders ranked near the bottom in nearly every metric. The defensive front ranked 27th in yards per rush allowed and the safeties couldn’t keep a lid on the pass defense and gave up too many big plays while ranking 31st in yards per pass play allowed and last in yards per completion allowed. Strong safety Quan Martin allowed 15.0 yards per target, but FS Reaves wasn’t bad (8.1 YPT) and new SS Nick Cross has allowed a solid 8.2 YPT in his career (8.1 YPT last season with Indy).

The team has also added edge rushers Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks and a 16% pressure rate last season) and K’Lavno Chaisson (7.5 sacks, 14.5% pressure), LB Leo Chenal (6.9 yards per target allowed in 4 seasons with KC and all-around solid player), and CBs Amik Robertson and Ahkello Witherspoon, who are helping to replace Marshon Lattimore, who wasn’t at his best last season in just 9 games.

The cornerbacks look like a worse than average group, but the safeties should be much better. The linebacking group took a hit with the departure of star veteran Bobby Wagner (currently an unsigned free agent) but Chenal is good and #7 overall draft pick Sonny Styles has the talent to produce as a rookie. I expect a significantly improved pass rush this season with the additions of Oweh and Chaisson and the return of edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, who registered 5.5 sacks in just 7 games last season (although he’ll miss game 1 due to suspension).

Armstrong (the top backup) is serving a one game suspension but Oweh has been cleared to play. There is some attrition at the backup defensive tackle position with Deatrich Wise and Johnny Newton.

New DC Daronte Jones worked 3 seasons in Minny under Brian Flores and that should result in a lot more blitz packages, which head coach Dan Quinn is hoping will lead to more turnovers (just 10 last season, #31 in the league). The Commanders made changes to their defense that should lead to much better results and I have them rated about a point worse than average heading into this season.

A decent defense, along with what should be an improved offense may give the Commanders a chance at getting back to the playoffs – particularly if Daniels reverts back to his rookie form.

Philadelphia Preview

Philadelphia’s offense took a step back, ranking 19th in the league in scoring while being a bit better than average in EPA per play and a bit worse than average in success rate (excluding week 18 with backups).

Trading away disgruntled receiver A.J. Brown might be good for the locker room, and quarterback Jalen Hurts’ mood, but it’s not likely going to be good for the offense. Brown had a down season with a mediocre 8.3 yards per target, below that of new #1 WR DeVonta Smith’s 8.9 YPT, but bringing in Dontayvion Wicks (7.4 career YPT) and Hollywood Brown (7.0 career YPT) is clearly a downgrade unless rookie Makai Lemon is much better than expected. I think Lemon will be good but he’s not likely to be A.J. Brown good and Hurts averaged just 6.3 yards per pass play for the second time in 3 seasons (’23 the other) and would have averaged 6.2 yppp in 2024 if you replaced Browns’ 11.1 yards per target with the 8.6 YPT of the next two wide receivers (Smith and Dotson). That’s not much better than the league average of 6.0 yppp and I think that’s what you can expect from Hurts this season.

The run game also took a predictable step back from the 2024 season in which Saquon Barkley ran for 2005 yards at 5.8 ypr on 345 runs (not including the playoffs). Back that carry the ball that often usually fall off significantly the next season, but Barkley dropped to a sub-par 4.1 ypr last season. The offensive line was average in run block win rate last season after being 9th in that metric in 2024. Missing All-Pro LT Lane Johnson for 7 games certainly hurt, as he is still playing at a high level, but he’s also 36 years old. I expect some improvement this season, but Barkley has averaged a modest 4.3 ypr in his career if you take out the 2024 season. New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion will likely be an upgrade over Kevin Patullo, who failed in his only season in that role, but I don’t see the Eagles being explosive without Brown unless Barkley bounces back significantly more than expected.

Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips led the Eagles in pressures and had an above average pressure rate (although just 5 sacks) and his loss could be felt in the pass-rush, although new OLB Jonathan Greenard had an even higher-pressure rate (18% to 16%) and grades out better versus the run. Greenard only had 3 sacks last season, which is random given his pressure rate, but he has 24.5 sacks over the previous two seasons and is an overall upgrade over Phillips. Unfortunately, Greenard is not expected to play this game and he’s worth 0.6 points.

The other change in the defensive lineup is at cornerback, as Adoree Jackson was not resigned. Jackson wasn’t bad for the Eagles but former Seattle CB Riq Woolen is an elite pass defender, who has allowed just 54% completions and 5.6 yards per target in his career (just 4.8 YPT last season). That gives the Eagles arguably the best trio of corners in the league with Woolen joining All-Pros Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

However, just because Vic Fangio’s defense has allowed 16.9 ppg (in 2024) and 19.1 ppg (last season) in his two seasons with the Eagles, and their personnel appears to be improved, doesn’t necessarily mean that the defense will be even better this season. Fangio has 25 NFL seasons as a defensive coordinator and those units that he’s coach have been -0.8 ppg better than average. He’s had his share of defenses that allowed less than 20.0 points per game and in 6 of those cases he returned to coach the next season. Of those 6 his defense allowed more points per game than the previous season 5 times with the one exception being lower by just 0.1 yppg and the average difference being 4.3 ppg worse. A regression equation of year-over-year defenses he’s coached projects that the Eagles will allow 21.3 ppg this season (1.7 ppg better than an average team). I think they should be regarded a bit better than that heading into the season, as surely there were some past Fangio defenses that were great one season and then lost key players to free agency, whereas this team added talent. Philly should be a top 5 defense this season based on their talent and Fangio’s coaching.

The Eagles are a better team than they were last season but not as good as they were in 2024 when they won the Super Bowl.

Game Analysis

My ratings favor Philadelphia by 5.4 points with a total of 42.0 points. The Commanders apply to a 52-24-3 ATS week 1 indicator based on how bad their defense was last season, so I’ll pass the side. I do like the under, however, and Under 45.5 points is a 1-Unit play (Under 45 is 0.5 Units).