Game Analysis

TAMPA BAY (-1) vs Green Bay

· Green Bay’s team total is only 20 for the first time since the NFC Championship of the 2019 season when they lost to the 49ers 37 to 20.

· The Packers showed the type of offense they want to execute last Sunday night while gaining 6.3 yppl and putting 27 points up on the scoreboard.

· Aaron Jones destroyed Chicago’s defense with 132 rushing yards, 38 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.

· The weakest link in Tampa Bay’s pass defense is stopping opposing running backs in the receiving game. Aaron Jones and fellow RB AJ Dillon are averaging 7.1 yards per target this season while Aaron Rodgers is averaging only 5.3 air yards (2nd-lowest).

· I certainly do not expect Rodgers to attack the Buccaneers downfield with his sub-standard wide receivers. Tampa Bay’s secondary has contested a league-leading 25% of passes through the first two games.

· Green Bay LT David Bakhtiari’s status will be worth monitoring again this week. The All-Pro hasn’t suited up since week 17 last season but he would go a long way in limiting Buccaneers edge defender Shaquil Barrett, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Tampa Bay’s pass play rate over expectation was +9% in Tom Brady’s first two seasons with the team, but it is -5% in 2022. New defensive head coach Todd Bowles could be partially to blame for the increased conservativeness, but more likely it is all the Buccaneers absences at wide receiver and offensive line.

· Brady did not have WRs Chris Godwin and Julio Jones for the entire game last week and then lost Mike Evans in the second half due to an ejection after a personal foul. Evans is now suspended. Jones may return on Sunday, but Tampa Bay’s receiver group is far from 100%.

· Starting LT Donovan Smith has only seen 23 snaps this season and so it could be backup Brandon Walton lined up across Packers edge defender Preston Smith, who had two sacks on Bears quarterback Justin Fields last week.

· Green Bay interior defender Kenny Clark has 10 pressures (2nd) and he will do damage against backup C Robert Hainsey. 

· The only good news for Brady is RT Tristan Wirfs has conceded only 2 pressures in the first two games of 2022, and he will contain Rashan Gary, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model has the Buccaneers by 3.2 with a predicted total of 43.7.