Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Atlanta Team Total (Over 17 -120)

Lean – Atlanta (+10) over LA RAMS

Lean – Over (46)

· Atlanta’s offense was impressive in week 1 and I don’t think the market has caught up to them yet. The Falcons gained 5.9 yppl versus a strong Saints defense we think is better than the Rams.

· Atlanta’s offensive line led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency in week 1. Head coach Arthur Smith’s scheme showed the capacity to keep Marcus Mariota clean against a strong pass rush and they will go back to those concepts again on Sunday. The New Orleans and Los Angeles pass rushes are roughly equitable in my mind as they finished last season with a 7.2% sack rate and a 7.4% sack rate respectively.

· Smith called play action on 48.6% of Marcus Mariota’s dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. The run threat should limit Aaron Donald from pinning his ears back against the Falcons like it did last week with Saints DT David Onyemata finishing with only one pressure. The Falcons ground game rated 6th by our metrics last week against a New Orleans rush defense who was the league’s top rush defense in 2021.

· Rams edge defender Leonard Floyd (dealing with knee issue) is banged-up. Floyd had 58 pressures last year (16th) and is worth 0.4 points.

· Arthur Smith is coaching like his job depends on it this season and he is likely to be particularly aggressive to boost his offense’s numbers by hunting explosive plays and stretching the field vertically.

· Up until the score was 17-10 in favor of Buffalo, Sean McVay called a 67% run rate on first downs up until the Bills were leading 17-10. The Rams had one rush for 18 yards and the others went for 2.1 yards per carry. The dependence on an inept ground game killed Los Angeles in week 1 which I do not expect to happen again on Sunday because Atlanta’s run defense is much worse than Buffalo’s run defense. The Falcons ranked 28th in our week 1 rush defense metrics and McVay likely will not be punished for his insistence on first downs runs this week.

· Atlanta’s defensive coordinator Dean Pees has an aggressive style, but he will get torched by Matthew Stafford if he goes with a 33% blitz rate like he did in week 1. PFF graded Stafford 4th versus the blitz last season and his success diagnosing blitzes played a large role in the Rams upset over the Buccaneers in the playoffs.

· Los Angeles C Brian Allen is having a procedure on his knee (will be out 2-4 weeks) and LG David Edwards surrendered 6 pressures last week. Falcons DT Grady Jarrett had 1.5 sacks last Sunday and should cause trouble on the Rams interior offensive line.

· All-Pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp picked up where he left off in the Super Bowl with 128 receiving yards in week 1 and he is going to torch undrafted free agent nickelback Dee Alford.

· Our model suggests that the true line should be Rams by just 7.2 points with a predicted total of 50.0 and the value is with the Falcons’ offense.

The Atlanta Team Total Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 18.5 or less and 1-Star up to 19. 2-Stars on Atlanta +10 is the alternate play.