Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Over 50.5- Las Vegas at DALLAS
Lean – Las Vegas (+7.5)
Dallas surrendered 5 sacks on non-blitzes last week in the loss to the Chiefs, but I expect the offensive line to be much better on Thanksgiving with LT Tyron Smith back in uniform. Smith led the league in pass blocking efficiency before an ankle injury in week 8. Smith will shut down edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who has 43 pressures (11th). The Cowboys average 1.3 more yards per rush and 1.4 more yppp with Smith on the field this season.
WR Amari Cooper is out but Dak Prescott should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Michael Gallup downfield across from Raiders CB Brandon Facyson, who is surrendering 1.39 yards per cover snap. I had expected WR CeeDee Lamb to clear the concussion protocol but he is out and is worth about a point.
Las Vegas is averaging 14.3 points per game since losing Henry Ruggs and now the offense is undervalued. The Raiders added DeSean Jackson to replace Ruggs’ speed and he went from 17% snap rate in week 10 to 34% last Sunday when the Raiders averaged 7.1 yppp versus the Bengals. We have Ruggs worth 0.9 points, but Jackson should get even more playing time in this game stretching the field for Derek Carr to find tight end Darren Waller underneath. Dallas is surrendering 8.7 yards per target to opposing TEs and Waller is averaging 1.82 yards per route run (4th).
Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.1 with a predicted total of 53.7 points. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 50.5 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.60
38.60
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.5%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
18.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.8%
31.8%
-
NYPP
7.31
5.72
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.50
29.50
-
RB YPR
3.71
4.30
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.8%
49.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.7%
45.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.72
4.48
Game
-
All Snaps
62.10
68.10
-
Early Down Succ
56.2%
50.7%
-
Succ Rate
50.9%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.01
5.18
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.88
28.20
-
Run Ratio
36.2%
43.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-1.41
1.41
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.40
37.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
44.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.9%
44.5%
-
NYPP
7.22
6.66
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.70
23.60
-
RB YPR
4.68
4.47
-
Stuff Rate
19.5%
22.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.8%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.7%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.61
4.39
Game
-
All Snaps
68.10
61.40
-
Early Down Succ
52.4%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.9%
45.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.7%
44.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.12
5.79
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.04
28.46
-
Run Ratio
42.1%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
2.10
-2.10
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BLT |
33 – 27 W |
-4.68 |
50.8% / 42.4% |
5.1% / 9.1% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
6.93 / 6.58 |
38.1% / 38.2% |
47.6% / 23.5% |
3.90 / 5.56 |
80 / 67 |
50.0% / 43.4% |
47.5% / 40.3% |
48.5% / 59.2% |
6.14 / 6.06 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
26.3% / 50.7% |
31.07 / 25.69 |
2 |
@PIT |
26 – 17 W |
3.62 |
59.0% / 47.6% |
5.1% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
9.56 / 6.95 |
40.0% / 35.7% |
32.0% / 35.7% |
2.08 / 2.79 |
64 / 56 |
56.3% / 48.8% |
51.6% / 44.6% |
43.3% / 43.7% |
6.64 / 5.91 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 25.0% |
26.20 / 21.90 |
3 |
MIA |
31 – 28 W |
-0.60 |
45.7% / 43.1% |
6.5% / 3.9% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.76 / 3.86 |
48.6% / 44.4% |
22.9% / 22.2% |
4.00 / 4.93 |
81 / 78 |
46.2% / 45.5% |
46.9% / 43.6% |
54.8% / 31.3% |
6.14 / 4.23 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.2% / 34.6% |
24.54 / 26.91 |
4 |
@LAC |
14 – 28 L |
-9.59 |
34.2% / 46.3% |
10.5% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.34 / 5.17 |
38.9% / 61.8% |
27.8% / 23.5% |
2.67 / 4.94 |
56 / 75 |
39.5% / 58.6% |
35.7% / 53.3% |
33.6% / 35.1% |
3.80 / 5.07 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.1% / 45.3% |
24.42 / 33.50 |
5 |
CHI |
9 – 20 L |
-5.61 |
42.1% / 47.8% |
7.9% / 8.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.95 / 4.74 |
54.5% / 45.9% |
27.3% / 37.8% |
3.23 / 3.86 |
60 / 60 |
55.0% / 48.9% |
46.7% / 46.7% |
24.9% / 9.5% |
4.32 / 4.20 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 61.7% |
21.60 / 29.40 |
6 |
@DEN |
34 – 24 W |
9.24 |
48.3% / 48.1% |
6.9% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
11.72 / 5.72 |
52.2% / 52.2% |
17.4% / 21.7% |
3.74 / 4.87 |
52 / 77 |
55.0% / 58.2% |
50.0% / 49.4% |
64.4% / 28.3% |
8.19 / 5.47 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
44.2% / 29.9% |
34.75 / 22.46 |
7 |
PHI |
33 – 22 W |
7.22 |
76.5% / 44.4% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
9.50 / 6.19 |
55.2% / 62.5% |
20.7% / 12.5% |
4.10 / 4.22 |
63 / 68 |
71.7% / 53.8% |
66.7% / 52.9% |
36.2% / 41.2% |
7.02 / 5.26 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
46.0% / 47.1% |
39.00 / 23.50 |
9 |
@NYG |
16 – 23 L |
-1.71 |
53.2% / 43.5% |
2.1% / 13.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
6.09 / 4.17 |
65.0% / 51.6% |
15.0% / 16.1% |
5.85 / 4.81 |
67 / 54 |
62.3% / 50.0% |
56.7% / 48.1% |
43.1% / 34.4% |
6.01 / 4.54 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
29.9% / 57.4% |
25.60 / 31.11 |
10 |
KC |
14 – 41 L |
-8.87 |
54.1% / 56.9% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.73 / 8.27 |
35.7% / 48.0% |
21.4% / 24.0% |
3.57 / 3.76 |
51 / 76 |
57.5% / 50.0% |
49.0% / 53.9% |
51.4% / 40.7% |
5.86 / 6.79 |
3.9% / 0.0% |
27.5% / 32.9% |
26.40 / 30.00 |
11 |
CIN |
13 – 32 L |
-3.18 |
55.2% / 46.9% |
6.9% / 9.4% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
7.10 / 4.03 |
66.7% / 50.0% |
22.2% / 26.3% |
4.00 / 4.18 |
47 / 70 |
71.1% / 48.1% |
59.6% / 48.6% |
48.8% / 30.0% |
5.91 / 4.11 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
38.3% / 54.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@TB |
29 – 31 L |
-3.19 |
57.6% / 56.0% |
1.7% / 0.0% |
1.7% / 4.0% |
6.63 / 7.58 |
38.9% / 64.3% |
27.8% / 7.1% |
3.33 / 3.71 |
77 / 64 |
54.2% / 60.4% |
53.2% / 57.8% |
32.0% / 38.5% |
5.86 / 6.73 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
23.4% / 21.9% |
26.92 / 32.69 |
2 |
@LAC |
20 – 17 W |
2.86 |
69.0% / 53.5% |
6.9% / 4.7% |
3.7% / 4.9% |
7.62 / 7.28 |
64.5% / 52.6% |
6.5% / 15.8% |
6.39 / 5.00 |
60 / 62 |
69.4% / 56.3% |
66.7% / 53.2% |
40.7% / 40.9% |
6.98 / 6.58 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.7% / 30.6% |
24.63 / 29.29 |
3 |
PHI |
41 – 21 W |
11.98 |
60.0% / 36.6% |
13.3% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
7.33 / 7.39 |
56.1% / 33.3% |
22.0% / 16.7% |
3.90 / 5.33 |
71 / 53 |
63.0% / 39.5% |
57.7% / 35.8% |
25.1% / 46.7% |
5.35 / 6.92 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
57.7% / 22.6% |
30.69 / 21.33 |
4 |
CAR |
36 – 28 W |
7.10 |
59.1% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
8.55 / 6.05 |
55.9% / 62.5% |
26.5% / 20.8% |
6.76 / 4.71 |
56 / 68 |
60.9% / 61.2% |
57.1% / 54.4% |
55.5% / 42.0% |
7.46 / 5.57 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.7% / 35.3% |
35.73 / 21.45 |
5 |
NYG |
44 – 20 W |
8.12 |
48.6% / 48.7% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
3.0% / 5.1% |
8.97 / 7.54 |
48.7% / 32.0% |
15.4% / 28.0% |
5.15 / 2.92 |
74 / 64 |
48.2% / 43.8% |
48.6% / 42.2% |
52.6% / 38.4% |
6.96 / 5.73 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
52.7% / 39.1% |
32.70 / 23.42 |
6 |
@NE |
35 – 29 W |
-2.00 |
52.9% / 52.2% |
0.0% / 8.7% |
2.0% / 4.8% |
8.73 / 9.35 |
35.5% / 51.9% |
29.0% / 18.5% |
3.94 / 4.44 |
82 / 50 |
50.8% / 57.5% |
46.3% / 52.0% |
39.7% / 56.4% |
6.91 / 6.70 |
1.2% / 2.0% |
37.8% / 54.0% |
29.00 / 30.38 |
8 |
@MIN |
20 – 16 W |
-3.37 |
40.9% / 27.0% |
6.8% / 2.7% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
7.75 / 4.78 |
41.7% / 37.5% |
8.3% / 33.3% |
3.25 / 4.21 |
68 / 61 |
39.6% / 37.0% |
41.2% / 31.1% |
43.4% / 45.6% |
6.16 / 4.56 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
35.3% / 39.3% |
20.91 / 29.83 |
9 |
DEN |
16 – 30 L |
-13.61 |
34.1% / 43.8% |
4.9% / 12.5% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.17 / 6.78 |
56.3% / 48.8% |
18.8% / 29.3% |
4.88 / 4.63 |
57 / 73 |
47.4% / 46.4% |
40.4% / 46.6% |
48.4% / 60.8% |
5.09 / 5.58 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
28.1% / 56.2% |
30.90 / 30.67 |
10 |
ATL |
43 – 3 W |
23.04 |
57.1% / 31.0% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 11.1% |
9.06 / 3.83 |
43.2% / 41.7% |
21.6% / 20.8% |
3.08 / 4.29 |
72 / 53 |
49.1% / 46.2% |
50.0% / 35.8% |
30.2% / 26.5% |
5.99 / 4.04 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
51.4% / 45.3% |
29.73 / 26.75 |
11 |
@KC |
9 – 19 L |
-9.92 |
39.6% / 42.5% |
10.4% / 7.5% |
4.7% / 2.7% |
4.04 / 6.10 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 23.1% |
5.13 / 4.85 |
64 / 66 |
41.7% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 45.5% |
10.4% / 45.1% |
4.31 / 5.61 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
25.0% / 39.4% |
0.00 / 0.00 |