Game Analysis
Lean – MIAMI (+2.5) over Atlanta
The Dolphins did not stretch the field against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 29th last week as 55% of Tua Tagovailoa’s attempts were short of the sticks. However, Miami will potentially have WR DeVante Parker back in uniform after missing the last two games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. Parker leads the team averaging 1.5 deep targets per game and Tagovailoa might look downfield more often on Sunday.
Neither Xavien Howard or Byron Jones were able to suit up in London but the Dolphins should have both starting cornerbacks back on the field this week. Matt Ryan’s top WR Calvin Ridley will make his return after missing the game against the Jets. Ridley is averaging nearly a half yard per route run more than backup wide receiver Tajae Sharpe.
Miami opted to play this week rather than taking a bye like every other team did coming back from London. The market disagrees with this decision with Atlanta moving from pick to -2.5. I don’t think it will have a huge affect on the game as the Dolphins were back in Miami on Monday.
Our model favors the Falcons by 0.3 with a predicted total of 46.4.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.67
36.67
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
3.7%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.8%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.3%
32.4%
-
NYPP
5.92
6.76
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.17
25.67
-
RB YPR
3.58
3.73
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
19.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.1%
58.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.7%
26.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.58
4.28
Game
-
All Snaps
66.83
62.33
-
Early Down Succ
44.3%
56.8%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
53.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.2%
31.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.11
5.73
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.18
28.37
-
Run Ratio
36.1%
40.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-0.58
0.58
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.00
40.57
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.4%
49.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
3.8%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.2%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.3%
47.7%
-
NYPP
5.18
7.24
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.57
27.71
-
RB YPR
3.65
4.10
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.2%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.80
4.24
Game
-
All Snaps
62.57
68.29
-
Early Down Succ
50.8%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
48.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.8%
48.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.73
6.08
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.36
28.82
-
Run Ratio
32.7%
40.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-4.26
4.26
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
6 – 32 L |
-7.50 |
39.5% / 55.6% |
7.9% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.58 / 7.25 |
42.3% / 58.1% |
26.9% / 12.9% |
4.77 / 5.58 |
64 / 67 |
47.8% / 61.5% |
40.6% / 56.7% |
24.3% / 35.5% |
4.06 / 6.48 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 46.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
2 |
@TB |
25 – 48 L |
-9.88 |
46.9% / 48.7% |
2.0% / 7.7% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
5.98 / 6.64 |
30.0% / 57.1% |
40.0% / 28.6% |
2.75 / 3.90 |
69 / 60 |
44.0% / 57.8% |
42.0% / 51.7% |
35.5% / 44.1% |
5.04 / 5.68 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
29.0% / 35.0% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
3 |
@NYG |
17 – 14 W |
-2.05 |
41.0% / 51.4% |
7.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.82 / 6.65 |
30.0% / 55.6% |
15.0% / 29.6% |
3.45 / 3.70 |
59 / 64 |
38.6% / 56.3% |
37.3% / 53.1% |
42.0% / 20.8% |
5.02 / 5.41 |
1.7% / 1.6% |
33.9% / 42.2% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
4 |
WAS |
30 – 34 L |
3.58 |
51.2% / 51.5% |
2.3% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.40 / 8.27 |
39.3% / 53.6% |
21.4% / 21.4% |
3.54 / 4.36 |
71 / 61 |
41.8% / 55.1% |
46.5% / 52.5% |
30.4% / 48.4% |
5.27 / 6.48 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 45.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
5 |
NYJ |
27 – 20 W |
9.52 |
54.3% / 41.2% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
7.43 / 4.88 |
44.8% / 72.2% |
17.2% / 11.1% |
3.72 / 3.56 |
75 / 52 |
46.7% / 55.0% |
50.7% / 51.9% |
27.1% / 27.3% |
6.00 / 4.42 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 34.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
7 |
@MIA |
30 – 28 W |
2.83 |
51.2% / 58.5% |
2.4% / 2.4% |
2.5% / 5.0% |
7.93 / 6.85 |
36.4% / 51.7% |
13.6% / 10.3% |
3.27 / 4.55 |
63 / 70 |
46.9% / 55.2% |
46.0% / 55.7% |
52.0% / 12.5% |
6.30 / 5.90 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 41.4% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
17 – 16 W |
3.18 |
51.7% / 56.4% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
6.38 / 7.21 |
56.5% / 56.7% |
30.4% / 13.3% |
3.22 / 4.17 |
52 / 69 |
58.5% / 52.8% |
53.8% / 56.5% |
43.1% / 36.9% |
4.98 / 5.88 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
44.2% / 43.5% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
2 |
BUF |
0 – 35 L |
-18.46 |
36.0% / 38.2% |
12.0% / 2.9% |
2.3% / 3.0% |
2.90 / 5.03 |
25.0% / 43.3% |
35.0% / 26.7% |
3.55 / 4.77 |
70 / 64 |
33.3% / 36.0% |
32.9% / 40.6% |
11.9% / 52.5% |
3.09 / 4.91 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
28.6% / 46.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
3 |
@LV |
28 – 31 L |
0.60 |
43.1% / 45.7% |
3.9% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
3.86 / 7.76 |
44.4% / 48.6% |
22.2% / 22.9% |
4.93 / 4.00 |
78 / 81 |
45.5% / 46.2% |
43.6% / 46.9% |
31.3% / 54.8% |
4.23 / 6.14 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 43.2% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
4 |
IND |
17 – 27 L |
-4.25 |
51.5% / 35.3% |
9.1% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.09 / 6.18 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
31.3% / 39.4% |
2.19 / 4.21 |
49 / 67 |
58.8% / 37.3% |
51.0% / 38.8% |
47.4% / 56.1% |
4.14 / 5.21 |
4.1% / 1.5% |
32.7% / 49.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
5 |
@TB |
17 – 45 L |
-9.98 |
54.8% / 68.1% |
7.1% / 4.3% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.24 / 9.30 |
44.4% / 64.0% |
22.2% / 24.0% |
4.33 / 4.84 |
51 / 72 |
59.5% / 66.7% |
52.9% / 66.7% |
50.0% / 39.6% |
5.90 / 7.75 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 34.7% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
6 |
@JAX |
20 – 23 L |
1.94 |
50.0% / 51.2% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
7.38 / 7.26 |
40.0% / 31.6% |
20.0% / 21.1% |
3.85 / 4.42 |
68 / 62 |
44.9% / 51.1% |
47.1% / 45.2% |
40.6% / 44.2% |
6.34 / 6.39 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
29.4% / 30.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
7 |
ATL |
28 – 30 L |
-2.83 |
58.5% / 51.2% |
2.4% / 2.4% |
5.0% / 2.5% |
6.85 / 7.93 |
51.7% / 36.4% |
10.3% / 13.6% |
4.55 / 3.27 |
70 / 63 |
55.2% / 46.9% |
55.7% / 46.0% |
12.5% / 52.0% |
5.90 / 6.30 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
41.4% / 34.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |