Game Analysis
BUFFALO (-7) vs Washington
The Bills shut out the Dolphins last week as QB Tua Tagovailoa exited the game in the first quarter with a rib injury and Jacoby Brissett averaged just 3.3 yppp. I expect Buffalo’s defense to have similar success this week against another backup quarterback, Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke played well last week as he depended on star WR Terry McLaurin, who now has 18 targets (eight more than any other teammate). However, McLaurin will be blanketed by Pro Bowl CB Tre’Davious White and Heinicke will likely struggle this week.
Josh Allen is struggling with his downfield accuracy, as he’s completed only 3 of his 13 passes (23%) with at least 20 air yards compared to 46% last year. Allen might have to get the quick game going with high winds expected in Buffalo and pressure coming from the interior. DT Jonathan Allen ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and should dominate LG Jon Feliciano, who has already surrendered 8 pressures.
Our model favors the Bills by 9.2 points with a predicted total of 47.3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
42.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.8%
24.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
28.5
-
RB YPR
4.6
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
18.4%
33.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
67.0%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.8%
55.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
71.0
-
Early Down Succ
62.1%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
56.8%
47.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
27.9%
34.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
28.8
-
Run Ratio
43.5%
40.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.0
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.3%
40.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
8.9%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.4%
12.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.2%
18.6%
-
NYPP
5.1
4.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
20.5
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
38.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
29.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.6%
49.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
71.5
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
41.7%
38.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.1%
36.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.6%
27.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
4.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.9
28.1
-
Run Ratio
39.3%
33.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
10.3
-10.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LAC |
16 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
40.9% /
55.1% |
4.5% /
4.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
6.1 /
6.9 |
70.4% /
41.4% |
18.5% /
37.9% |
4.7 /
3.1 |
49 /
78 |
63.2% /
43.9% |
57.1% /
50.0% |
23.4% /
24.1% |
5.3 /
5.5 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
55.1% /
37.2% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
NYG |
30 – 29 W |
-2.2 |
53.2% /
44.4% |
2.1% /
11.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
6.9 |
63.6% /
46.4% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
4.0 /
5.8 |
69 /
64 |
61.1% /
50.0% |
56.5% /
45.3% |
32.4% /
45.6% |
6.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
43.8% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
2.1 |
44.4% /
44.1% |
5.6% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
5.5 |
48.0% /
33.3% |
16.0% /
42.9% |
4.7 /
3.6 |
79 /
55 |
47.4% /
42.9% |
45.6% /
40.0% |
22.7% /
43.0% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
31.6% /
38.2% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@MIA |
35 – 0 W |
18.5 |
38.2% /
36.0% |
2.9% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
2.3% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
43.3% /
25.0% |
26.7% /
35.0% |
4.8 /
3.6 |
64 /
70 |
36.0% /
33.3% |
40.6% /
32.9% |
52.5% /
11.9% |
5.0 /
3.6 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
46.9% /
28.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Washington Football Team
@ 
Buffalo Bills