Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS

Atlanta’s offensive line has surrendered the 8th-highest pressure rate despite Matt Ryan getting the ball out quicker than he ever has in his career. Interior defender Leonard Williams ranked 5th in pass rushing efficiency last year and he will be a problem for rookie LG Jalen Mayfield, who has already surrendered 11 pressures.

The Falcons are more dangerous with first round TE Kyle Pitts on the field, as they’ve averaged 5.3 yards per play with Pitts in the game compared to 2.6 yppl with the rookie on the sideline according to Tru Media. The Giants have surrendered 149 receiving yards to opposing tight ends during the first two weeks (27th) so Pitts should have a productive game.

Falcons’ CB AJ Terrell might miss this game with a concussion and CB Kendall Sheffield is already out. This could force backup cornerback TJ Green into the lineup which makes Atlanta’s defense about a half point worse. Green spent all but one game last season on the Falcons’ practice squad.

Daniel Jones has been solid thus far, but he is being held back by play calling which will likely continue with Jason Garrett. Only 33% of Jones’ passing attempts have been to an open receiver, the lowest rate in the league.

Our model favors the Giants by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, and Atlanta applies to a very good 208-110-8 ATS situation. The Falcons are a Strong Opinion at +3 up to -115 odds.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Giants

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.5 37.5
Succ Pass Plays 43.2% 52.1%
Sack Rate 5.0% 5.2%
Int Rate 3.1% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 10.3% 19.7%
Big Pass Yards 19.3% 39.4%
NYPP 5.2 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 23.0 26.0
RB YPR 3.9 4.2
Stuff Rate 33.5% 20.7%
Succ Rush Plays 36.2% 57.6%
Big Rush Yards 37.3% 35.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.7

Game

All Snaps 66.5 63.5
Early Down Succ 45.9% 59.7%
Succ Rate 41.3% 54.2%
Big Yards Rate 29.9% 39.8%
Yards Per Play 4.8 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 27.1
Run Ratio 34.8% 40.6%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -8.7 8.7

Points 15.5 40.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	6 – 32 L	-7.5	39.5% / 55.6%	7.9% / 2.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.3	42.3% / 58.1%	26.9% / 12.9%	4.8 / 5.6	64 / 67	47.8% / 61.5%	40.6% / 56.7%	24.3% / 35.5%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 46.3%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@TB	25 – 48 L	-9.9	46.9% / 48.7%	2.0% / 7.7%	6.3% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.1	30.0% / 57.1%	40.0% / 28.6%	2.8 / 3.9	69 / 60	44.0% / 57.8%	42.0% / 51.7%	35.5% / 44.1%	5.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 1.7%	29.0% / 35.0%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	13 – 27 L	-4.9	48.7% / 52.6%	5.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.9	45.0% / 39.3%	20.0% / 21.4%	3.0 / 5.9	59 / 66	47.7% / 45.7%	47.5% / 47.0%	30.3% / 34.7%	5.5 / 6.5	1.7% / 1.5%	33.9% / 42.4%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@WAS	29 – 30 L	2.2	44.4% / 53.2%	11.1% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	6.9 / 7.1	46.4% / 63.6%	28.6% / 18.2%	5.8 / 4.0	64 / 69	50.0% / 61.1%	45.3% / 56.5%	45.6% / 32.4%	6.4 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 31.9%	0.0 / 0.0

Atlanta Falcons @

New York Giants

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis