Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Note: The Under Best Bet no longer qualifies due to a line move, although I certainly still lean under the total at 48 or higher.

2-Star Best Bet – UNDER (49 -105) – TENNESSEE vs Indianapolis

Lean – Indianapolis (+5)

These teams met on November 12th last year in Tennessee with similar weather conditions and the total was 49. However, both of these offenses are now worse with the Titans downgrading from Arthur Smith to Todd Downing calling the plays and the Colts downgrading at quarterback.

Philip Rivers averaged 7.2 yards per pass play last season and Carson Wentz was averaging 5.9 yppp in the first two games before coming out against the Rams due to injury (and he averaged just 4.7 yppp with Philly last season). Wentz suffered sprains to both of his ankles and might not be in uniform on Sunday. Brett Hundley took the majority of snaps in practice on Wednesday and he and Jacob Eason may split time under center if Wentz doesn’t play. Hundley has averaged only 4.6 yppp on 368 career pass plays and Eason completed just 2 of 5 passes in his NFL debut last week. Both backups are 2 points worse than Wentz according to our metrics. Wentz will likely have limited mobility if he is able to suit up which will be dubious behind an Indianapolis offensive line ranked last in pass blocking efficiency. Backup RT Julie’n Davenport has allowed 13 pressures in two games, and he won’t be able to stay in front of edge defender Denico Autry (10th in pass rushing efficiency).

Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency and Ryan Tannehill should face plenty of pressure up the middle. Colts’ DT DeForest Buckner has an 11.7% pressure rate and the All-Pro will feast across from C Ben Jones (6 pressures surrendered) and RG Nate Davis, who ranks 51st out of 58 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency.

I expect these teams to rely on the ground game with the Colts QB situation and with the Titans’ Derrick Henry coming off a week where he had 182 rushing yards.

Our model favors the Titans by just 3.0 points if Wentz is out, and the Titans apply to a 65-133-8 ATS home favorite letdown situation off last week’s close win. The model’s predicted total is 45.4 points and the Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49 points (lean under at 48.5 or 48).

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Titans

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 28.5
Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 57.9%
Sack Rate 7.5% 7.4%
Int Rate 2.8% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 25.2%
Big Pass Yards 23.7% 48.1%
NYPP 6.4 9.4

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 27.5
RB YPR 3.4 4.9
Stuff Rate 18.2% 18.1%
Succ Rush Plays 56.9% 58.3%
Big Rush Yards 23.2% 42.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.4

Game

All Snaps 68.0 56.0
Early Down Succ 56.0% 64.1%
Succ Rate 51.4% 58.3%
Big Yards Rate 23.5% 45.8%
Yards Per Play 5.4 6.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.6 28.1
Run Ratio 41.1% 49.2%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -4.9 4.9

Points 20.0 27.5

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	16 – 28 L	-7.6	48.8% / 57.7%	7.3% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 9.8	60.0% / 66.7%	13.3% / 14.8%	3.8 / 5.2	71 / 53	60.0% / 69.0%	53.5% / 62.3%	9.9% / 51.0%	5.1 / 7.4	1.4% / 1.9%	42.3% / 50.9%	0.0 / 0.0
2	LA	24 – 27 L	-2.2	46.2% / 58.1%	7.7% / 3.2%	5.6% / 3.3%	6.7 / 9.0	53.8% / 50.0%	23.1% / 21.4%	4.2 / 3.6	65 / 59	51.9% / 59.2%	49.2% / 54.2%	37.2% / 40.6%	5.7 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.7%	40.0% / 47.5%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARZ	13 – 38 L	-15.6	42.9% / 41.2%	14.3% / 5.9%	2.8% / 3.1%	5.2 / 8.5	45.5% / 53.1%	36.4% / 21.9%	3.9 / 4.0	64 / 66	50.0% / 46.2%	43.8% / 47.0%	24.3% / 47.4%	4.8 / 6.3	3.1% / 0.0%	34.4% / 48.5%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@SEA	33 – 30 W	-5.5	53.5% / 41.2%	7.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 10.1	52.5% / 55.6%	22.5% / 22.2%	5.3 / 4.3	83 / 52	57.6% / 51.3%	53.0% / 46.2%	31.3% / 58.6%	6.7 / 8.1	1.2% / 0.0%	48.2% / 34.6%	0.0 / 0.0

Indianapolis Colts @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis