Game Analysis
Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Tennessee
Lean – Under 51.5
The Colts closed as a 1-point favorite when these teams squared off on Thursday night two weeks ago in Tennessee and we won a Best Bet with Indy that night. The Indianapolis injury situation is much different this time around. Colts center Ryan Kelly ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency but he has been ruled out with a neck injury. Interior defender DeForest Buckner ranks 9th with 32 pressures, but he will not play on Sunday due to covid.
The Indianapolis defense still matches up well to stop Tennessee’s attack but it will be much tougher without Buckner. The Colts are conceding just 5.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends and held Jonnu Smith to just 14 yards on 6 targets two weeks ago. Xavier Rhodes is allowing a reception on only one out of every 16 cover snaps (16th) and he will limit AJ Brown. The Indianapolis 4th-rated rush defense will be more vulnerable against Derrick Henry than they were last time around as they will be without DE Denico Autry and LB Bobby Okereke along with Buckner. Those three defenders have combined for 29 run stops this season.
Our model favors the Colts by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.7, and I’ll lean with the Colts and the Under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.8
40.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.1%
53.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.5%
3.0%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.3%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.0%
32.2%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.3
27.4
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.8%
53.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.7%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
68.1
-
Early Down Succ
54.3%
53.6%
-
Succ Rate
52.3%
53.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.1%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.7
28.4
-
Run Ratio
49.2%
40.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
27.1
-
Game Control
0.8
-0.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.5
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.9%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
2.9%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.7%
39.1%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
25.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
23.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.9%
29.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
65.5
59.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.4%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.8%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.9
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.0
24.9
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
16 – 14 W |
-0.4 |
59.1% / 48.5% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 6.5 |
52.9% / 57.7% |
20.6% / 30.8% |
3.8 / 4.1 |
78 / 59 |
59.0% / 57.1% |
56.4% / 52.5% |
29.2% / 38.4% |
4.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
43.6% / 44.1% |
21.4 / 26.9 |
2 |
JAC |
33 – 30 W |
8.0 |
60.0% / 59.6% |
4.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
9.2 / 6.7 |
52.9% / 59.3% |
14.7% / 7.4% |
3.6 / 6.1 |
59 / 74 |
56.5% / 55.9% |
55.9% / 59.5% |
28.8% / 38.5% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 36.5% |
35.3 / 18.6 |
3 |
@MIN |
31 – 30 W |
-3.2 |
44.7% / 44.8% |
2.6% / 6.9% |
2.7% / 7.4% |
8.2 / 8.2 |
65.7% / 48.5% |
17.1% / 12.1% |
3.8 / 6.8 |
73 / 62 |
63.2% / 49.0% |
54.8% / 46.8% |
53.4% / 64.7% |
6.1 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
47.9% / 53.2% |
34.4 / 23.3 |
7 |
PIT |
24 – 27 L |
-8.6 |
39.4% / 51.0% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.4 / 5.5 |
43.5% / 72.0% |
34.8% / 20.0% |
3.6 / 3.8 |
56 / 74 |
42.9% / 54.5% |
41.1% / 58.1% |
49.7% / 26.2% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.1% / 33.8% |
26.5 / 34.9 |
5 |
BUF |
42 – 16 W |
9.8 |
67.9% / 55.3% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
7.0 / 5.9 |
47.1% / 54.5% |
17.6% / 9.1% |
4.1 / 4.3 |
62 / 69 |
54.9% / 49.0% |
56.5% / 55.1% |
19.5% / 15.1% |
5.4 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
54.8% / 31.9% |
46.1 / 17.3 |
6 |
HOU |
42 – 36 W |
5.0 |
55.8% / 62.5% |
4.7% / 5.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
7.9 / 8.0 |
48.1% / 55.6% |
14.8% / 29.6% |
9.7 / 3.4 |
70 / 67 |
51.7% / 61.2% |
52.9% / 59.7% |
61.6% / 42.5% |
8.6 / 6.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 40.3% |
21.1 / 31.3 |
8 |
@CIN |
20 – 31 L |
-7.8 |
51.6% / 62.2% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.2 / 6.7 |
82.8% / 50.0% |
6.9% / 15.6% |
7.5 / 3.7 |
60 / 69 |
68.0% / 52.8% |
66.7% / 56.5% |
47.2% / 23.4% |
7.4 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 46.4% |
20.7 / 27.3 |
9 |
CHI |
24 – 17 W |
8.7 |
37.5% / 45.5% |
12.5% / 5.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
32.3% / 25.0% |
25.8% / 30.0% |
3.0 / 2.8 |
55 / 75 |
34.2% / 44.6% |
34.5% / 40.0% |
58.8% / 37.6% |
4.1 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
56.4% / 26.7% |
28.9 / 29.2 |
10 |
IND |
17 – 34 L |
-0.8 |
46.4% / 55.0% |
3.6% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.4 |
53.1% / 65.5% |
31.3% / 24.1% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
60 / 69 |
55.1% / 65.4% |
50.0% / 59.4% |
35.7% / 39.3% |
4.9 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.3% / 42.0% |
22.3 / 29.9 |
11 |
@BAL |
30 – 24 W |
-2.3 |
58.8% / 53.3% |
5.9% / 3.3% |
3.1% / 3.4% |
7.4 / 5.9 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
17.6% / 18.2% |
5.1 / 3.9 |
68 / 63 |
57.4% / 45.8% |
54.4% / 49.2% |
45.9% / 31.4% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 52.4% |
20.5 / 32.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@JAC |
20 – 27 L |
2.5 |
55.3% / 62.5% |
2.1% / 16.7% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 6.3 |
36.4% / 39.1% |
27.3% / 17.4% |
4.0 / 4.0 |
69 / 47 |
53.7% / 52.8% |
49.3% / 51.1% |
30.1% / 34.9% |
6.4 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 48.9% |
27.0 / 31.0 |
2 |
MIN |
28 – 11 W |
9.3 |
51.9% / 24.1% |
7.4% / 10.3% |
4.0% / 11.5% |
7.5 / 3.3 |
50.0% / 38.9% |
17.5% / 11.1% |
3.8 / 4.4 |
67 / 47 |
56.6% / 32.4% |
50.7% / 29.8% |
34.5% / 41.7% |
5.3 / 3.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.7% / 38.3% |
44.6 / 20.5 |
3 |
NYJ |
36 – 7 W |
12.6 |
64.0% / 41.9% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
9.4 / 4.9 |
25.8% / 41.4% |
12.9% / 17.2% |
3.8 / 3.8 |
56 / 60 |
46.5% / 46.8% |
42.9% / 41.7% |
45.6% / 26.9% |
6.3 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.4% / 48.3% |
33.6 / 18.4 |
4 |
@CHI |
19 – 11 W |
8.5 |
40.0% / 46.5% |
3.3% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.2 / 5.6 |
28.9% / 31.3% |
26.3% / 18.8% |
2.7 / 1.8 |
68 / 59 |
30.4% / 47.7% |
33.8% / 42.4% |
39.8% / 39.8% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.9% / 27.1% |
31.7 / 20.5 |
5 |
@CLE |
23 – 32 L |
-5.2 |
47.1% / 48.7% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
6.1% / 5.3% |
7.1 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
11.1% / 21.2% |
3.8 / 3.8 |
52 / 72 |
51.3% / 40.7% |
48.1% / 45.8% |
26.0% / 36.9% |
5.9 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 45.8% |
25.0 / 28.6 |
6 |
CIN |
31 – 27 W |
-6.2 |
53.3% / 43.9% |
2.2% / 4.9% |
2.3% / 2.6% |
8.2 / 7.3 |
40.0% / 43.8% |
20.0% / 28.1% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
60 / 73 |
47.9% / 41.5% |
50.0% / 43.8% |
50.7% / 39.4% |
7.2 / 5.5 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
25.0% / 43.8% |
29.0 / 23.7 |
8 |
@DET |
41 – 21 W |
6.0 |
58.3% / 40.4% |
5.6% / 10.6% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.9 / 6.3 |
48.7% / 30.8% |
17.9% / 46.2% |
3.1 / 2.2 |
75 / 60 |
55.2% / 36.4% |
53.3% / 38.3% |
43.2% / 50.9% |
4.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
52.0% / 21.7% |
29.4 / 27.8 |
9 |
BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
43.2% / 60.0% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 6.2 |
61.9% / 60.5% |
14.3% / 26.3% |
5.3 / 2.9 |
65 / 63 |
58.3% / 65.3% |
49.2% / 60.3% |
31.0% / 15.4% |
5.2 / 4.2 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
32.3% / 60.3% |
27.8 / 28.0 |
10 |
@TEN |
34 – 17 W |
0.8 |
55.0% / 46.4% |
2.5% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 4.9 |
65.5% / 53.1% |
24.1% / 31.3% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
69 / 60 |
65.4% / 55.1% |
59.4% / 50.0% |
39.3% / 35.7% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 53.3% |
29.9 / 22.3 |
11 |
GB |
34 – 31 W |
-5.0 |
51.4% / 53.8% |
2.7% / 2.6% |
2.8% / 2.6% |
7.6 / 7.7 |
45.9% / 72.2% |
32.4% / 16.7% |
3.8 / 3.7 |
74 / 57 |
48.2% / 68.2% |
48.6% / 59.6% |
37.9% / 44.4% |
5.7 / 6.4 |
1.4% / 5.3% |
50.0% / 31.6% |
41.6 / 28.6 |