Game Analysis
Miami (-7) vs NY JETS
Lean – Under 45
Tua Tagovailoa is out this week but veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade based on our meetrics and he should have a good outing against New York’s aggressive defense
Sam Darnold is back at quarterback for the Jets but I’m not expecting much from New York’s offense on Sunday against a really good Miami defense – although Darnold has historically played better at home.
Our model favors the Dolphins by 9.2 points, with a predicted total of 43.1 points, but the Jets apply to a few strong contrary angles, including a 91-39 ATS angle that plays on teams in a game when the average points margin differential of the two teams is 20 points or more (Jets average point margin is -15.3 points and Miami is +6.2 points). A 94-43-5 ATS same season revenge dog angle also applies to the Jets. If you’re in a pool and the line is 7.5 points then I suggest taking the Jets here. Otherwise, flip a coin.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.9
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.5%
51.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.3%
32.3%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
14.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
58.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.6%
52.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
56.4%
58.3%
-
Succ Rate
52.2%
53.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.6%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
27.2
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
25.1
-
Game Control
5.0
-5.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.7
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.7%
55.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
3.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
36.4%
-
NYPP
4.9
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
22.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.2%
51.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
59.2
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
52.6%
-
Succ Rate
44.6%
49.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.8%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.3
31.1
-
Game Control
-8.3
8.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
11 – 21 L |
-5.7 |
51.6% /
61.9% |
3.2% /
9.5% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
51.9% /
66.7% |
18.5% /
11.9% |
3.2 /
5.2 |
58 /
63 |
55.6% /
68.6% |
51.7% /
65.1% |
23.4% /
33.1% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.6% /
66.7% |
20.8 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
BUF |
28 – 31 L |
-4.2 |
48.0% /
61.1% |
6.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
11.5 |
63.6% /
39.1% |
18.2% /
17.4% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
72 /
59 |
56.9% /
55.3% |
52.8% /
52.5% |
29.5% /
70.0% |
5.7 /
8.9 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
30.6% /
39.0% |
26.9 /
20.4 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
31 – 13 W |
12.9 |
66.7% /
54.3% |
4.8% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
7.4 /
5.3 |
47.2% /
52.9% |
27.8% /
5.9% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
57 /
63 |
54.8% /
62.0% |
54.4% /
54.0% |
31.0% /
19.2% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
63.2% /
27.0% |
35.8 /
23.5 |
| 4 |
SEA |
23 – 31 L |
-6.0 |
56.5% /
63.9% |
2.2% /
5.6% |
4.4% /
2.9% |
6.8 /
9.5 |
59.1% /
61.5% |
13.6% /
11.5% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
68 /
62 |
58.2% /
71.4% |
57.4% /
62.9% |
21.4% /
49.4% |
6.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
41.9% |
23.2 /
31.6 |
| 5 |
@SF |
43 – 17 W |
16.4 |
60.0% /
30.0% |
6.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
11.4 /
3.2 |
39.4% /
78.9% |
36.4% /
15.8% |
2.8 /
6.9 |
63 /
59 |
53.2% /
53.2% |
49.2% /
45.8% |
64.2% /
26.3% |
6.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
52.4% /
32.2% |
39.0 /
26.5 |
| 8 |
LA |
28 – 17 W |
9.2 |
43.5% /
46.0% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
3.9 /
5.4 |
40.0% /
65.5% |
24.0% /
13.8% |
2.2 /
4.5 |
48 /
92 |
48.6% /
56.2% |
41.7% /
52.2% |
0.0% /
21.0% |
3.0 /
5.1 |
4.2% /
2.2% |
52.1% /
31.5% |
34.6 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
@ARI |
34 – 31 W |
1.5 |
54.8% /
63.0% |
9.7% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
9.8 |
56.0% /
45.9% |
16.0% /
10.8% |
3.6 /
4.8 |
56 /
64 |
60.0% /
55.1% |
55.4% /
53.1% |
22.8% /
43.4% |
5.6 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
57.8% |
26.3 /
22.7 |
| 6 |
NYJ |
24 – 0 W |
15.8 |
54.8% /
31.9% |
6.5% /
6.4% |
6.9% /
2.3% |
6.2 /
3.1 |
56.0% /
54.5% |
12.0% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
56 /
69 |
63.8% /
44.9% |
55.4% /
39.1% |
36.4% /
69.2% |
5.4 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
31.9% |
37.1 /
18.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
17 – 27 L |
-12.9 |
36.8% /
55.1% |
7.9% /
6.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
60.0% /
40.6% |
20.0% /
31.3% |
3.5 /
3.1 |
53 /
81 |
47.5% /
48.4% |
43.4% /
49.4% |
47.2% /
27.5% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
1.9% /
2.5% |
28.3% /
39.5% |
20.7 /
39.5 |
| 2 |
SF |
13 – 31 L |
-14.2 |
39.4% /
53.3% |
3.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
5.2 /
5.9 |
48.3% /
27.6% |
27.6% /
48.3% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
62 /
59 |
48.9% /
38.6% |
43.5% /
40.7% |
33.2% /
48.7% |
4.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
49.2% |
28.7 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
@IND |
7 – 36 L |
-12.6 |
41.9% /
64.0% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
9.4 |
41.4% /
25.8% |
17.2% /
12.9% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
60 /
56 |
46.8% /
46.5% |
41.7% /
42.9% |
26.9% /
45.6% |
4.3 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.3% /
55.4% |
18.4 /
33.6 |
| 4 |
DEN |
28 – 37 L |
-1.6 |
34.0% /
45.2% |
12.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
9.7% |
3.8 /
7.8 |
54.2% /
28.1% |
20.8% /
25.0% |
5.4 /
3.7 |
74 /
63 |
41.5% /
36.2% |
40.5% /
36.5% |
44.2% /
60.4% |
4.3 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
50.8% |
30.3 /
33.1 |
| 5 |
ARI |
10 – 30 L |
-10.3 |
44.4% /
60.5% |
8.3% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
4.5 /
9.7 |
57.1% /
43.3% |
28.6% /
13.3% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
64 /
68 |
57.1% /
57.7% |
50.0% /
52.9% |
31.2% /
55.8% |
4.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
44.1% |
26.7 /
22.3 |
| 7 |
BUF |
10 – 18 L |
1.4 |
27.6% /
57.8% |
20.7% /
4.4% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
6.6 |
59.1% /
63.0% |
27.3% /
18.5% |
4.5 /
4.7 |
51 /
72 |
45.2% /
67.8% |
41.2% /
59.7% |
34.7% /
33.2% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
37.5% |
25.8 /
36.1 |
| 8 |
@KC |
9 – 35 L |
-13.1 |
35.5% /
63.8% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.5 |
52.0% /
40.0% |
12.0% /
30.0% |
3.7 /
2.5 |
56 /
67 |
48.8% /
58.8% |
42.9% /
56.7% |
12.2% /
38.7% |
3.9 /
7.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
29.9% |
25.5 /
28.8 |
| 9 |
NE |
27 – 30 L |
4.1 |
65.4% /
48.6% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
7.8 |
50.0% /
58.5% |
5.6% /
14.6% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
44 /
76 |
58.8% /
55.2% |
59.1% /
53.9% |
41.6% /
39.3% |
7.3 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.9% /
53.9% |
23.5 /
21.1 |
| 6 |
@MIA |
0 – 24 L |
-15.8 |
31.9% /
54.8% |
6.4% /
6.5% |
2.3% /
6.9% |
3.1 /
6.2 |
54.5% /
56.0% |
27.3% /
12.0% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
56 |
44.9% /
63.8% |
39.1% /
55.4% |
69.2% /
36.4% |
3.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
44.6% |
18.7 /
37.1 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
New York Jets