Game Analysis
Lean – CINCINNATI (+6) over NY Giants
Ryan Finley had negative net passing yards on 14 dropbacks last week in relief of Joe Burrow and the Bengals wisely will not send the backup quarterback out there again this week. The next man up is Brandon Allen, who averaged 4.9 yards per pass play in three starts with Denver last season. I’m not optimistic about Allen’s chances behind an offensive line that is ranked 27th in pass blocking efficiency. Particularly troublesome for Allen is the match up of NYG DT Leonard Williams, who has 5 sacks on the interior, lining up across from LG Michael Jordan, who ranks 52nd out of 55 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency.
Daniel Jones has regressed from 2019 in both air yards per attempt and average yards per pass play and hasn’t reached 300 yards or three passing touchdowns in a game all year. That is not terribly surprising given that Jason Garrett is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the NFL. RT Cameron Fleming ranks 51st out of 59 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he will have a hard time containing DE Carl Lawson off the edge.
There is likely to be some ugly quarterback play in this game and our model favors the Giants by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.6
0.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.8%
0.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
0.0%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.8%
0.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.9%
0.0%
-
NYPP
5.4
0.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
0.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
0.0
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
0.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.6%
0.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.3%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
0.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.4
0.0
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
0.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.1%
0.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.1%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
0.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
0.0
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
0.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
45.1
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
48.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
3.5%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.0%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.1%
40.2%
-
NYPP
5.5
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
27.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.4%
49.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.9%
54.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
70.7
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.0%
49.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
27.2%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
26.9
-
Run Ratio
36.4%
43.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
29.1
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
16 – 26 L |
-3.1 |
50.0% / 44.1% |
6.8% / 5.9% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.1 |
25.0% / 36.7% |
40.0% / 20.0% |
1.5 / 4.7 |
64 / 64 |
38.3% / 36.2% |
42.2% / 40.6% |
31.6% / 35.8% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
31.3% / 46.9% |
36.3 / 30.3 |
2 |
@CHI |
13 – 17 L |
-9.1 |
43.2% / 46.9% |
9.1% / 12.5% |
2.5% / 7.1% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
50.0% / 40.6% |
22.2% / 18.8% |
4.2 / 4.2 |
62 / 64 |
50.0% / 38.3% |
45.2% / 43.8% |
32.5% / 30.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
29.0% / 50.0% |
29.2 / 29.1 |
3 |
SF |
9 – 36 L |
-9.1 |
38.2% / 60.5% |
5.9% / 5.3% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 8.6 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
40.0% / 34.3% |
4.4 / 2.7 |
49 / 73 |
37.8% / 50.8% |
38.8% / 52.1% |
50.2% / 30.0% |
4.7 / 5.8 |
4.1% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 47.9% |
24.8 / 35.9 |
4 |
@LA |
9 – 17 L |
-4.1 |
41.5% / 50.0% |
12.2% / 5.9% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
56.0% / 47.8% |
12.0% / 17.4% |
5.4 / 2.5 |
66 / 57 |
51.0% / 53.7% |
47.0% / 49.1% |
34.9% / 28.3% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
37.9% / 40.4% |
31.0 / 23.6 |
5 |
@DAL |
34 – 37 L |
1.6 |
40.0% / 62.9% |
5.7% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
6.0 / 7.9 |
48.1% / 51.7% |
22.2% / 20.7% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
62 / 64 |
41.7% / 58.2% |
43.5% / 57.8% |
24.3% / 32.8% |
4.8 / 6.3 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
43.5% / 45.3% |
33.2 / 23.1 |
6 |
WAS |
20 – 19 W |
4.2 |
45.0% / 48.9% |
5.0% / 6.7% |
5.3% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 5.6 |
50.0% / 45.8% |
23.1% / 16.7% |
5.1 / 3.6 |
46 / 69 |
45.5% / 44.2% |
47.8% / 47.8% |
44.6% / 28.5% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
56.5% / 34.8% |
35.4 / 27.4 |
7 |
@PHI |
21 – 22 L |
0.0 |
39.4% / 50.0% |
9.1% / 6.5% |
3.3% / 2.3% |
5.0 / 7.5 |
45.5% / 42.3% |
22.7% / 15.4% |
7.3 / 3.7 |
55 / 72 |
45.5% / 51.8% |
41.8% / 47.2% |
61.8% / 36.9% |
5.9 / 6.1 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.1% |
24.8 / 32.4 |
8 |
TB |
23 – 25 L |
-0.7 |
46.7% / 0.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 0.0 |
54.2% / 0.0% |
12.5% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 0.0 |
69 / 0 |
50.9% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 0.0% |
26.1% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 0.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 0.0% |
0.0 / 0.0 |
9 |
@WAS |
23 – 20 W |
7.9 |
35.9% / 61.0% |
12.8% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
4.7 / 8.9 |
57.1% / 44.4% |
11.4% / 22.2% |
4.7 / 4.1 |
74 / 50 |
50.0% / 61.9% |
45.9% / 58.0% |
43.1% / 54.7% |
4.7 / 8.0 |
0.0% / 4.0% |
47.3% / 18.0% |
35.2 / 23.5 |
10 |
PHI |
27 – 17 W |
7.4 |
48.4% / 47.5% |
9.7% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 4.8 |
50.0% / 60.9% |
22.2% / 30.4% |
4.2 / 6.8 |
67 / 63 |
55.1% / 62.7% |
49.3% / 52.4% |
51.8% / 37.6% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.7% / 36.5% |
31.5 / 16.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LAC |
13 – 16 L |
2.4 |
43.6% / 37.5% |
7.7% / 6.3% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 6.5 |
50.0% / 41.0% |
17.9% / 20.5% |
4.4 / 4.0 |
67 / 71 |
48.1% / 42.3% |
46.3% / 39.4% |
12.5% / 39.8% |
4.4 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 54.9% |
33.6 / 25.9 |
2 |
@CLE |
30 – 35 L |
-7.1 |
48.4% / 47.8% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.5 / 9.5 |
62.5% / 60.0% |
25.0% / 11.4% |
2.8 / 6.1 |
88 / 58 |
51.6% / 56.5% |
52.3% / 55.2% |
6.5% / 54.6% |
4.0 / 7.5 |
1.1% / 0.0% |
27.3% / 60.3% |
25.3 / 38.3 |
3 |
@PHI |
23 – 23 T |
-0.2 |
42.3% / 38.0% |
15.4% / 6.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
38.9% / 55.6% |
33.3% / 16.7% |
2.7 / 4.9 |
70 / 86 |
46.4% / 44.6% |
41.4% / 45.3% |
25.7% / 36.5% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.7% / 41.9% |
30.2 / 24.6 |
4 |
JAC |
33 – 25 W |
3.7 |
54.1% / 60.5% |
2.7% / 7.0% |
2.8% / 2.5% |
8.1 / 7.9 |
61.8% / 55.0% |
17.6% / 15.0% |
6.0 / 4.5 |
71 / 63 |
63.2% / 65.4% |
57.7% / 58.7% |
48.1% / 46.6% |
7.1 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.9% / 31.7% |
33.0 / 24.0 |
5 |
@BAL |
3 – 27 L |
-15.6 |
32.4% / 36.8% |
18.9% / 2.6% |
3.3% / 2.7% |
3.6 / 4.5 |
28.6% / 45.8% |
21.4% / 16.7% |
2.5 / 6.7 |
65 / 62 |
32.6% / 38.6% |
30.8% / 40.3% |
12.7% / 42.2% |
3.2 / 5.4 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 38.7% |
26.1 / 32.3 |
6 |
@IND |
27 – 31 L |
6.2 |
43.9% / 53.3% |
4.9% / 2.2% |
2.6% / 2.3% |
7.3 / 8.2 |
43.8% / 40.0% |
28.1% / 20.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
73 / 60 |
41.5% / 47.9% |
43.8% / 50.0% |
39.4% / 50.7% |
5.5 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
43.8% / 25.0% |
23.7 / 29.0 |
7 |
CLE |
34 – 37 L |
2.4 |
63.5% / 72.4% |
7.7% / 0.0% |
2.1% / 3.4% |
7.4 / 10.9 |
57.1% / 36.4% |
14.3% / 22.7% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
73 / 51 |
60.3% / 57.1% |
61.6% / 56.9% |
32.5% / 57.3% |
6.4 / 7.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 43.1% |
31.7 / 26.9 |
8 |
TEN |
31 – 20 W |
7.8 |
62.2% / 51.6% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
6.7 / 7.2 |
50.0% / 82.8% |
15.6% / 6.9% |
3.7 / 7.5 |
69 / 60 |
52.8% / 68.0% |
56.5% / 66.7% |
23.4% / 47.2% |
5.3 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 48.3% |
27.3 / 20.7 |
10 |
@PIT |
10 – 36 L |
-14.8 |
29.5% / 43.5% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.2 |
52.4% / 20.0% |
9.5% / 45.0% |
6.6 / 2.2 |
65 / 66 |
45.8% / 36.0% |
36.9% / 36.4% |
50.9% / 32.1% |
5.0 / 5.7 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 30.3% |
20.9 / 35.5 |
11 |
@WAS |
9 – 20 L |
-4.6 |
43.8% / 40.7% |
8.3% / 7.4% |
2.3% / 4.0% |
4.2 / 6.0 |
38.9% / 55.9% |
27.8% / 11.8% |
3.9 / 4.8 |
66 / 61 |
49.0% / 56.5% |
42.4% / 49.2% |
19.9% / 51.1% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
27.3% / 55.7% |
23.5 / 34.0 |