Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota

Even without Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari last week, Green Bay’s offensive line only lost five pass-blocking reps (lowest of any team). Backup tackle Rick Wagner didn’t lose a single rep against JJ Watt and Aaron Rodgers picked apart the Texans secondary in an easy win. The Vikings had just a 15.9% pressure rate when these teams squared off in week 1 and now they’ve traded away their best pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue. Bakhtiari is practicing this week and is expected to play and Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to pick apart this defense as well. Matt LeFleur has improved his play calling this season with Rodgers targeting an open receiver on 59% of his pass attempts compared to 53.5% in 2019. Last week, Davante Adams posted a career-high 196 receiving yards and he had 156 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in week 1. The Vikings will be without starting CB Cameron Dantzler due to covid. The only thing that could slow down this Packers’ passing attack is the high winds expected on Sunday. Green Bay’s 2nd-best ground game will face Minnesota’s top-rated rush defense, so the Packers won’t be able to rely on their normally strong ground attack if the wind makes passing difficult.

Packers CB Jaire Alexander has now shadowed Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, and Will Fuller in consecutive games and held the three wide receivers to a combined 1 reception for 6 yards. Alexander shadowed Adam Thielen in week 1 and I expect the CB to do the same this Sunday, which means most of the receiving workload will likely go to rookie WR Justin Jefferson, which isn’t bad considering that Jefferson lead the Vikings in receiving yards and is averaging a ridiculous 14.9 yards per target. It’s possible that Alexander may defend Jefferson instead of Thielen, but Jefferson recorded just 26 yards on 3 targets in the week 1 matchup so they’ll likely stick to the same plan to start this game.

Since Mike Zimmer came to Minnesota, the Vikings are 1-18-1 outdoors against a team with a winning record and 3-16-1 ATS. Our favors Green Bay by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 52.3 points, and Zimmer’s home-road splits (especially when the road game is outdoors) may be worth a point or two.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Packers

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 28.3 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 51.1%
Sack Rate 8.2% 3.3%
Int Rate 7.6% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 30.3% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 53.2% 55.0%
NYPP 6.9 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 24.3 35.7
RB YPR 5.6 4.2
Stuff Rate 10.8% 13.6%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 60.4%
Big Rush Yards 51.3% 29.4%
Yards Per Rush 5.8 4.2

Game

All Snaps 52.7 72.0
Early Down Succ 50.2% 61.2%
Succ Rate 47.3% 55.4%
Big Yards Rate 52.7% 45.4%
Yards Per Play 6.3 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 31.0
Run Ratio 45.5% 49.9%
Starting Field Pos 22.2 37.5
Game Control -4.2 4.2

Points 25.0 34.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	34 – 43 L	-6.6	59.3% / 56.8%	7.4% / 0.0%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 8.3	72.7% / 65.6%	9.1% / 6.3%	6.1 / 4.9	49 / 76	69.0% / 63.9%	65.3% / 60.5%	51.8% / 48.5%	7.8 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.9% / 42.1%	22.8 / 33.6
2	@IND	11 – 28 L	-9.3	24.1% / 51.9%	10.3% / 7.4%	11.5% / 4.0%	3.3 / 7.5	38.9% / 50.0%	11.1% / 17.5%	4.4 / 3.8	47 / 67	32.4% / 56.6%	29.8% / 50.7%	41.7% / 34.5%	3.7 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 59.7%	20.5 / 44.6
3	TEN	30 – 31 L	3.2	44.8% / 44.7%	6.9% / 2.6%	7.4% / 2.7%	8.2 / 8.2	48.5% / 65.7%	12.1% / 17.1%	6.8 / 3.8	62 / 73	49.0% / 63.2%	46.8% / 54.8%	64.7% / 53.4%	7.5 / 6.1	1.6% / 0.0%	53.2% / 47.9%	23.3 / 34.4

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	43 – 34 W	6.6	56.8% / 59.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	0.0% / 4.0%	8.3 / 9.2	65.6% / 72.7%	6.3% / 9.1%	4.9 / 6.1	76 / 49	63.9% / 69.0%	60.5% / 65.3%	48.5% / 51.8%	6.9 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 44.9%	33.6 / 22.8
2	DET	42 – 21 W	5.7	54.8% / 45.9%	3.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.4 / 5.9	57.1% / 61.9%	8.6% / 14.3%	7.4 / 4.2	66 / 58	58.8% / 53.3%	56.1% / 51.7%	58.2% / 37.1%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 36.2%	28.0 / 20.0
3	@NO	37 – 30 W	1.6	54.5% / 50.0%	3.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.2	50.0% / 50.0%	26.9% / 15.0%	3.8 / 6.1	59 / 58	55.6% / 51.1%	52.5% / 50.0%	50.9% / 33.2%	6.3 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	44.1% / 34.5%	33.9 / 28.9

Minnesota Vikings @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis