Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Tampa Bay (-6) vs DENVER

Denver quarterback Drew Lock will not be available on Sunday and I expect to see Jeff Driskel under center against the Buccaneers despite the signing of former Jaguars’ quarterback Blake Bortles. Driskely is a downgrade of 2.5 points from Lock and the Broncos will likely be forced to pass with their backup QB given that Tampa Bay has the best rush defense by our metrics.

Driskel’s 10.3 air yards per attempt rank as the 3rd-highest in the NFL since the start of last season but he will not have deep threat Courtland Sutton to throw to due to a torn ACL. Sutton had 11 receptions on balls with 20+ air yards last season (10th) but I expect rookie WR KJ Hamler to pick up the slack for Sutton. Hamler ranked 11th in total air yards in Week 2 and all of his targets came from Driskel after Lock was knocked out of the game. However, Driskel may not have time to look deep with Shaquil Barrett (one of 6 edge defenders with double digit pressures) lined up across from RT Elijah Wilkinson, who ranks 42nd out of 55 qualifiers in pass blocking efficiency. Buccaneers’ rookie safety Antoine Winfield has been a great addition thus far and had a tackle on 14.5% of his defensive snaps without a single miss last week.

Tom Brady has been playing better than the box score would suggest so far in 2020. On throws of 10 yards or more, Brady has thrown 6 of 10 such passes perfectly, according to PFF’s ball-location data. Four of those 10 passes were dropped by Tampa Bay receivers. Brady finished the day with seven dropped passes, two more than any other quarterback. WR Chris Godwin should be back from his concussion this week and, along with Mike Evans, the Buccaneers WRs should be able to get open against Denver’s young cornerback group that is without AJ Bouye (dislocated shoulder).

Our model favors Tampa Bay by only 3.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, but the Broncos apply to a 21-57-3 ATS week 3 situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Broncos

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 46.9%
Sack Rate 3.8% 6.9%
Int Rate 4.2% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 19.2% 17.1%
Big Pass Yards 45.0% 35.6%
NYPP 6.0 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 29.0
RB YPR 4.6 2.9
Stuff Rate 25.2% 22.4%
Succ Rush Plays 54.5% 51.2%
Big Rush Yards 47.7% 16.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.0

Game

All Snaps 61.0 68.5
Early Down Succ 48.4% 51.1%
Succ Rate 47.5% 48.7%
Big Yards Rate 46.1% 30.2%
Yards Per Play 5.4 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 28.9
Run Ratio 39.3% 42.7%
Starting Field Pos 27.7 34.1
Game Control 3.0 -3.0

Points 27.0 25.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	23 – 34 L	-6.1	46.2% / 40.6%	7.7% / 3.1%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	50.0% / 44.1%	23.1% / 32.4%	3.3 / 2.4	65 / 66	49.0% / 46.9%	47.7% / 42.4%	39.0% / 35.8%	4.8 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 51.5%	18.1 / 41.8
2	CAR	31 – 17 W	12.1	40.0% / 53.2%	0.0% / 10.6%	2.9% / 4.8%	6.2 / 7.2	59.1% / 58.3%	27.3% / 12.5%	5.5 / 3.6	57 / 71	47.8% / 55.2%	47.4% / 54.9%	53.1% / 24.6%	5.9 / 6.0	1.8% / 2.8%	38.6% / 33.8%	37.4 / 26.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	14 – 16 L	0.4	48.5% / 59.1%	0.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 5.6	57.7% / 52.9%	30.8% / 20.6%	4.1 / 3.8	59 / 78	57.1% / 59.0%	52.5% / 56.4%	38.4% / 29.2%	5.5 / 4.8	1.7% / 0.0%	44.1% / 43.6%	26.9 / 21.4
2	@PIT	21 – 26 L	-7.1	34.8% / 45.2%	15.2% / 2.4%	2.6% / 2.4%	4.7 / 7.2	42.3% / 40.9%	23.1% / 27.3%	4.0 / 5.0	72 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	37.5% / 43.8%	57.4% / 49.5%	4.4 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	36.1% / 34.4%	29.9 / 35.1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Sep 27

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis