Game Analysis
Lean – LA Chargers (+5) over Kansas City (in Mexico City)
Last week, Patrick Mahomes threw 62% of his attempts in under 2.5 seconds (career-high) in an attempt to protect himself in the first game back from injury. Mahomes is at his best when he can extend plays and improvise, which I expect him to do more of this week after saying this is the best he’s felt since going into week 1. However, Kansas City’s top two receivers are facing difficult matchups. Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 3.05 yards per route run but he will be limited by speedy nickelback Desmond King and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is conceding only 0.67 yards per cover snap (2nd). Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 743 receiving yards but the Chargers rank 3rd against opposing tight ends according to our metrics. Kansas City’s right tackle Mitchell Schwartz missed the first snaps of his career last week but should be back out there on Monday night. Schwartz ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but left tackle Eric Fisher is in jeopardy of missing his 9th-straight game and Chargers’ edge defenders Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are both ranked in the top 15 of pass rushing efficiency. Schwartz’s availability will be important to slow down this pass rush but he can only block one of the Chargers’ great pass-rushers.
Philip Rivers targets his running backs on 27.7% of passes (4th-highest) and Austin Ekeler is gaining 2.51 yards per route run (1st). Ekeler is likely to be featured against a Kansas City defense that is allowing 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th). Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon will be a threat on the ground versus a Chiefs rush defense ranked 28th. The Chargers rank last in pass blocking efficiency, but Kansas City’s defense is producing a pass rush win rate of just 36% (28th) and they may not be able to exploit the Bolts in the trenches.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will mostly be neutralized by this Los Angeles secondary while the Chargers’ running back duo should be dominant in their matchup against the Chiefs’ defense. Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 51.7 points. There is now some line value to go with the Chargers’ matchup advantage.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.1
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.2%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
0.3%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.8%
21.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.6%
42.9%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.4
28.8
-
RB YPR
4.1
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
14.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.4%
55.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.3%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
5.2
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
52.7%
53.2%
-
Succ Rate
50.6%
50.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.4%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
28.4
-
Run Ratio
34.6%
43.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
27.6
-
Game Control
3.8
-3.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.6
31.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.6%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.0%
15.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.4%
36.5%
-
NYPP
7.2
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
20.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.7%
49.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.6%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.4
57.5
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
50.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
49.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
30.7
-
Run Ratio
36.6%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.6
27.6
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@JAC |
40 – 26 W |
11.7 |
58.8% / 52.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
11.1 / 10.2 |
57.7% / 43.8% |
26.9% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 5.1 |
60 / 50 |
62.5% / 50.0% |
58.3% / 50.0% |
62.3% / 55.4% |
8.2 / 8.6 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
43.3% / 32.0% |
38.4 / 23.8 |
2 |
@OAK |
28 – 10 W |
8.3 |
56.5% / 46.3% |
4.3% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
9.4 / 4.3 |
36.4% / 52.6% |
36.4% / 26.3% |
1.4 / 6.8 |
68 / 60 |
49.1% / 48.9% |
50.0% / 48.3% |
62.3% / 38.4% |
6.8 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
32.4% / 31.7% |
26.2 / 25.3 |
3 |
BAL |
33 – 28 W |
7.1 |
57.9% / 34.8% |
2.6% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 5.4 |
46.2% / 71.9% |
26.9% / 6.3% |
5.4 / 6.3 |
64 / 78 |
55.8% / 50.8% |
53.1% / 50.0% |
49.5% / 37.6% |
7.9 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 41.0% |
25.5 / 26.0 |
4 |
@DET |
34 – 30 W |
-1.3 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 6.9 |
60.0% / 65.7% |
24.0% / 20.0% |
4.9 / 5.3 |
67 / 73 |
54.4% / 61.7% |
53.7% / 57.5% |
37.2% / 52.3% |
6.5 / 6.1 |
4.5% / 2.7% |
37.3% / 47.9% |
22.5 / 33.3 |
5 |
IND |
13 – 19 L |
-1.9 |
39.5% / 48.3% |
9.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.7 / 5.2 |
42.9% / 68.9% |
35.7% / 11.1% |
2.6 / 4.0 |
57 / 74 |
42.9% / 67.9% |
40.4% / 60.8% |
53.1% / 22.4% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 60.8% |
25.1 / 32.0 |
6 |
HOU |
24 – 31 L |
2.6 |
44.4% / 59.5% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 4.8% |
7.1 / 6.7 |
45.5% / 56.1% |
18.2% / 12.2% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
47 / 83 |
44.7% / 62.1% |
44.7% / 57.8% |
42.1% / 25.2% |
6.6 / 5.7 |
2.1% / 1.2% |
23.4% / 49.4% |
27.2 / 32.4 |
7 |
@DEN |
30 – 6 W |
11.6 |
51.6% / 25.6% |
3.2% / 20.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 3.1 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
25.9% / 14.3% |
3.0 / 3.4 |
58 / 64 |
46.3% / 37.5% |
43.1% / 31.3% |
43.9% / 37.6% |
4.7 / 3.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.6% / 32.8% |
36.8 / 23.4 |
8 |
GB |
24 – 31 L |
-3.7 |
47.4% / 52.6% |
5.3% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 6.7 |
75.0% / 57.7% |
5.0% / 7.7% |
4.4 / 4.5 |
58 / 64 |
57.4% / 55.1% |
56.9% / 54.7% |
38.6% / 48.1% |
5.8 / 5.8 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 40.6% |
28.6 / 26.6 |
9 |
MIN |
26 – 23 W |
0.3 |
52.5% / 41.0% |
12.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 5.4 |
55.6% / 25.9% |
22.2% / 25.9% |
8.2 / 3.6 |
58 / 66 |
60.5% / 34.0% |
53.4% / 34.8% |
53.6% / 40.6% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.0% / 40.9% |
26.1 / 28.8 |
10 |
@TEN |
32 – 35 L |
3.6 |
52.8% / 39.1% |
3.8% / 17.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.3 |
52.0% / 69.2% |
20.0% / 3.8% |
3.9 / 8.7 |
78 / 49 |
53.2% / 64.1% |
52.6% / 55.1% |
41.5% / 71.4% |
6.8 / 7.6 |
1.3% / 2.0% |
32.1% / 53.1% |
30.3 / 24.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
IND |
30 – 24 W |
6.2 |
52.6% / 44.8% |
10.5% / 6.9% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.0 |
57.1% / 66.7% |
23.8% / 15.2% |
6.0 / 6.2 |
59 / 62 |
52.1% / 56.3% |
54.2% / 56.5% |
57.9% / 38.0% |
7.4 / 6.1 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 53.2% |
30.0 / 26.4 |
2 |
@DET |
10 – 13 L |
1.9 |
43.2% / 56.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 6.7% |
7.8 / 8.2 |
52.0% / 50.0% |
16.0% / 17.9% |
5.5 / 3.4 |
62 / 58 |
46.9% / 56.5% |
46.8% / 53.4% |
55.4% / 39.8% |
6.8 / 5.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 48.3% |
22.0 / 20.7 |
3 |
HOU |
20 – 27 L |
2.4 |
41.2% / 58.3% |
9.8% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 9.4 |
38.9% / 26.3% |
16.7% / 26.3% |
4.1 / 2.1 |
69 / 55 |
41.2% / 45.5% |
40.6% / 47.3% |
42.6% / 57.7% |
5.3 / 6.8 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
26.1% / 34.5% |
27.7 / 24.2 |
4 |
@MIA |
30 – 10 W |
6.4 |
71.9% / 48.3% |
3.1% / 17.2% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
9.7 / 5.6 |
39.4% / 55.6% |
21.2% / 22.2% |
2.4 / 4.0 |
65 / 47 |
57.1% / 52.8% |
55.4% / 51.1% |
23.1% / 34.3% |
6.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 38.3% |
31.8 / 25.0 |
5 |
DEN |
13 – 20 L |
-12.5 |
41.7% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 13.0% |
4.2% / 5.0% |
4.4 / 6.9 |
31.3% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 15.6% |
2.2 / 6.0 |
64 / 55 |
42.9% / 48.8% |
39.1% / 43.6% |
8.1% / 60.6% |
3.8 / 6.4 |
1.6% / 1.8% |
25.0% / 58.2% |
31.3 / 28.9 |
6 |
PIT |
17 – 24 L |
-16.2 |
44.4% / 55.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
4.5% / 5.0% |
7.0 / 6.6 |
21.4% / 36.1% |
35.7% / 27.8% |
2.3 / 3.4 |
59 / 56 |
34.0% / 36.6% |
39.0% / 42.9% |
24.1% / 27.0% |
5.9 / 4.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
23.7% / 64.3% |
20.0 / 37.0 |
7 |
@TEN |
20 – 23 L |
-0.9 |
56.4% / 62.5% |
2.6% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
8.4 / 9.6 |
23.8% / 48.3% |
42.9% / 20.7% |
1.9 / 3.3 |
60 / 61 |
43.8% / 57.4% |
45.0% / 55.7% |
35.1% / 36.5% |
6.1 / 6.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
35.0% / 47.5% |
24.9 / 24.1 |
8 |
@CHI |
17 – 16 W |
-2.7 |
43.3% / 41.0% |
3.3% / 10.3% |
3.4% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 5.8 |
16.7% / 47.4% |
50.0% / 28.9% |
3.0 / 4.3 |
42 / 77 |
40.6% / 45.9% |
35.7% / 44.2% |
35.5% / 60.1% |
5.5 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
28.6% / 49.4% |
34.0 / 30.7 |
9 |
GB |
26 – 11 W |
9.8 |
60.0% / 42.1% |
6.7% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 3.7 |
63.2% / 63.6% |
13.2% / 9.1% |
4.2 / 4.1 |
68 / 49 |
66.7% / 55.3% |
61.8% / 46.9% |
37.1% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.9% / 22.4% |
29.7 / 25.8 |
10 |
@OAK |
24 – 26 L |
-4.0 |
41.7% / 47.1% |
13.9% / 8.8% |
9.7% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 5.9 |
63.3% / 52.4% |
16.7% / 23.8% |
4.9 / 3.7 |
66 / 55 |
55.6% / 52.4% |
51.5% / 49.1% |
58.1% / 16.2% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 38.2% |
25.2 / 33.0 |